Tim Farrar (tmfassociates.com) published "Musk's daily Starship problem…"
As the brief logged it
Farrar disputes Musk's "1+ Starship flight/day within a year" target as demand-unjustified: Shotwell has previously guided to only 15-20K total Starlink satellites vs. the ~110K implied by Musk's own math (365 flights/yr x 60 sats x 5yr life); at ~10K subscribers/V3-satellite, 15-20K sats already implies 150-200M global customers, exceeding plausible fixed-broadband demand once developed-market fiber competition ($50/mo symmetric 10Gbps vs. Starlink community-gateway pricing reported near $75K/Gbps/month) is accounted for. Separately flags terminal manufacturing (Bastrop capacity doubling to ~300K/week by year-end) as the more binding near-term constraint than launch cadence. Per doctrine, never pushed as news — flagged for retro to fold into BASE RATES (Starlink pricing aggression / demand-ceiling calibration).
Provenance
Logged in the brief of 11 August 2026.
Raw brief ↗ (repository access)