Next on the clock: FCC 26-46 — Section 316 protest window closes (none filed as of the 08-18 ECFS pull), 30 Aug 2026today

ProceedingStageNextSES postureVerified
USAU Docket 26-191Auction 115 — 3,248 Upper C-band flexible-use licenses (DA 26-769)comments2026-07-24rulemaking24 Aug 2026bidding-procedures comments due (replies 2026-09-08; bidding starts 2027-04-27; statutory completion 2027-07-04)not filed2026-08-13
USFCC 26-46Upper C-band Report & Order — 160 MHz clearing, $6.3B incentive pool (GN 25-59, 18-122)order adopted2026-07-22rulemaking30 Aug 2026todaySection 316 protest window closes (none filed as of the 08-18 ECFS pull); order effective 2026-09-29; Transition Plans due 2026-11-05party to2026-08-18
EUCOM(2026)311EU 2 GHz MSS Regulation — three-pool band split (Arts 6/9/10), Art 20 incumbent extension to ~May 2029committee2026-05-28legislative~Sep 2026est.EC "call for interest" expected ~Sept 2026; ITRE rapporteur unassigned 12+ weeksmonitoring2026-08-20
USSAT-LOA-20260601-00224Amazon Leo 5,105-satellite D2D constellation application (DA 26-866; contingent on the open GN 26-134 Globalstar transfer)public notice2026-08-18licensing17 Sep 2026in 18 dayscomments/petitions to deny due (oppositions 2026-09-28, replies 2026-10-05)monitoring2026-08-20
USET Docket 26-169Unleashing Unlicensed Spectrum for Direct-to-Device (FCC 26-51) — Part 15 bands (2.4/5.8 GHz) opened to D2D satellite useNPRM2026-08-06rulemakingcomment deadlines run 30/60 days after Federal Register publication (FR date unset)monitoring2026-08-08
USFCC 26-26NGSO-GSO EPFD replacement — throughput-based GSO protection standard, in forceeffective2026-07-13rulemakingno dated step; implementation activity continues in docket 25-157 (SES ex parte 2026-08-14)filed2026-08-18
UKFuture use of the 2 GHz MSS band (Ofcom)Ofcom consultation on the UK 2 GHz MSS band past the May 2027 incumbent expiryclosed2026-08-18consultationOfcom statement of intent (no date announced); proposed 3-5yr transitional continuation for Viasat/EchoStarmonitoring2026-08-20

Posture records the public docket only: filed · not filed · party to · monitoring. Each row's primary document is linked on its identifier; "verified" is the date the row was last checked against it. Board source: dockets.md, maintained by the dossier deep-dive routine.

Dated obligations17

  1. 30 Aug 2026todayUS C-band Section 316 protest window closes (FCC 26-46; none filed as of the 2026-08-18 ECFS pull)FCC 26-46 para. 194; 91 FR 48700 (FR publication 2026-07-31 started the 30-day window)
  2. 8 Sep 2026in 9 daysAuction 115 bidding-procedures reply comments due (AU Docket 26-191)FCC DA 26-769; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
  3. ~Sep 2026est.EC "call for interest" on EU 2 GHz MSS expected (~Sept per COM(2026)311 track)dossiers/mss-2ghz-spectrum.md (open question 2)
  4. 17 Sep 2026in 18 daysComments/petitions to deny due, Amazon Leo's 5,105-sat D2D filing (SAT-LOA-20260601-00224)FCC DA 26-866 (released 2026-08-18); briefs/2026-08-20T0347Z.md
  5. 28 Sep 2026in 29 daysOppositions/responses due, Amazon Leo's 5,105-sat D2D filingFCC DA 26-866 (released 2026-08-18); briefs/2026-08-20T0347Z.md
  6. 29 Sep 2026in 30 daysFCC 26-46 Upper C-band order effective date91 FR 48700 (effective-date field); dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
  7. 29 Sep 2026in 30 daysest.Upper C-band Clearinghouse selection committee must convene by ~this date (60 days from FR publication; SES holds one of nine seats)FCC 26-46 para. 156-158; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
  8. 1 Oct 2026in 32 daysRelocation Coordinator selection committee convenes no later than this date (one rep per eligible operator)FCC 26-46 para. 170; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
  9. 5 Oct 2026in 36 daysReplies due, Amazon Leo's 5,105-sat D2D filingFCC DA 26-866 (released 2026-08-18); briefs/2026-08-20T0347Z.md
  10. 6 Oct 2026in 37 daysRadio altimeter retrofit rebate draft categories due out for comment (Upper C-band Clearinghouse-administered)FCC 26-46 para. 177-182; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
  11. 5 Nov 2026in 10 weeksSES/Eutelsat/Telesat Upper C-band Transition Plans due (firm statutory deadline)FCC 26-46 para. 163, 865; 47 CFR § 27.1412(e); dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
  12. 12 Nov 2026in 11 weeksDISH Wireless §363 sale + plan-confirmation hearing pushed to 2026-11-12 or 2026-12-02 (Judge Lopez, after Crown Castle ~$3.5B and American Tower ~$2B won discovery over Dish's timeline — a delay, not a ruling)priors.md RESOLVED 2026-08-24 (Inside Towers/broadbandbreakfast/Octus); briefs/2026-08-24T0340Z.md
  13. 15 Dec 2026Clearinghouse selection committee must notify FCC of its choice (fallback: majority vote by 2027-01-15)FCC 26-46 para. 156-158; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
  14. 24 Jan 2027est.Teltrium Cost Catalog must finalize by ~this date (6 months from FCC 26-46 release)FCC DA 26-783; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
  15. 27 Apr 2027est.Auction 115 bidding tentatively scheduled to commenceFCC DA 26-769 (tentative); dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
  16. 4 Jul 2027Auction 115 statutory completion deadline (OBBBA: bidding must complete, not merely commence)Pub. L. No. 119-21 § 40002(b)(2) via FCC DA 26-769 para. 1; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
  17. 31 Dec 2027est.ESA European Launcher Challenge Component A deadline — must reach orbit for ESA to fund operational launches thru 2030; Isar targeting late 2027europeanspaceflight.com 2026-08-27; briefs/2026-08-28T0338Z.md

From the desk's dated-events ledger, confidence-tagged; the full calendar is at Calendar.

What moved · 30 days14

  1. 2026-08-26[S1]open ↗
    [AGE: 19h] US Trustee urges a bankruptcy examiner into $1.5bn of alleged EchoStar self-dealing against Ch.11 subsidiary Hughes, incl. its cut of the SpaceX spectrum sale; contested hearing today, outcome pending.
    EchoStar/Hughes is SES's most heavily tracked distress case on the Satellite consolidation wave thread — a 2 GHz MSS bidder (SIRION-1, held at EchoStar Corp/EchoStar Global, NOT a Ch.11 filing entity) and US C-band incumbent whose corporate cash position and governance credibility both bear on that competitive contest. This escalates a claim priors.md already tracks (the Special Committee's authority to prosecute fraudulent-transfer/fiduciary-duty claims against EchoStar incl. Ergen) by having the creditors themselves argue that Special Committee is compromised — and for the first time ties the SpaceX spectrum-sale proceeds directly into the self-dealing allegations, a new financial-architecture angle on EchoStar's post-AT&T-sale recapitalization story.
  2. 2026-08-20[S2]open ↗
    [AGE: 1d] The FCC formally accepted Amazon Leo's 5,105-satellite direct-to-device application and set its comment deadlines (Sep 17, Sep 28, Oct 5) — the venue SES/Lynk must use to contest a 7th funded D2D architecture ahead of the EU's 2 GHz MSS spectrum fight.
    Sets the concrete near-term calendar SES/Lynk (2 GHz MSS bidders) and other opponents must act within to formally oppose or shape Amazon's D2D system — a dated tripwire distinct from the underlying filing already tracked since July. A 7th funded D2D architecture (after Starlink, AST, Skylo, EchoStar/SIRION-1, Lynk/Elveo, and Amazon's own Kuiper-D2D intent) formally entering FCC pleading process reinforces SpaceConnect's "D2D supply is abundant" argument against SES/Lynk's EU 2 GHz MSS bid.
  3. 2026-08-18[S1]open ↗
    [AGE: 23h] SES-backed Lynk Global completed its merger with spectrum-holder Omnispace (closed Aug 14), rebranding as Elveo Mobile — SES named a lead strategic investor in the combined D2D operator, whose spectrum position now feeds directly into SES/Lynk's contest for the EU's 2 GHz MSS allocation.
    This is SES's own capital allocation into the D2D competitive field, not just competitive intelligence — priors.md's EXISTENTIAL 2 GHz MSS thread already carries "SES/Lynk weakest, only EchoStar's SIRION-1 credible" as the standing base case. Elveo now combines Lynk's MNO commercial base with Omnispace's licensed multi-band MSS spectrum rights (the same S-band family contested in the EU's COM(2026)311 process) under continued/expanded SES backing — worth a dossier pass (`dossiers/mss-2ghz-spectrum.md`) to assess whether this changes the "weakest bidder" read for the ~September consortium call, rather than assuming the merger is priced into that assessment already. Separately strengthens the GEO/MEO-to-LEO multi-orbit integration narrative SES is building (see also Telesat's own unprompted orbital-relay positioning, already tracked under Space-data/multi-mission platform).
  4. 2026-08-11[S3]open ↗
    [AGE: 11h] AST SpaceMobile's Q2 2026 results (filed/announced Aug 10): revenue $31.5M (missed $35.2M consensus), backlog ~$1.3bn, and over $125M in new US government contract awards this quarter for undisclosed "national-security applications" — clears the DoD-contract materiality floor for an on-watchlist D2D player.
    AST SpaceMobile competes with SES/Lynk on the 2 GHz MSS bid and is a D2D-competitive-field anchor. The >$125M government-contract cluster clears priors.md's DOD/GOVERNMENT-CONTRACT MATERIALITY FLOOR (>=$100M to an on-watchlist counterparty defaults to push) even without an agency breakdown — "national-security applications" funding flowing to a commercial D2D operator is a further data point for the "US government treats commercial D2D/LEO as dual-use sovereign infrastructure" thesis this desk already tracks via Rocket Lab/K2 Space/Xona. The revenue miss + reaffirmed guidance is a mixed signal — commercial ramp is real but lumpy; not itself thesis-moving.
  5. 2026-08-08[S1]open ↗
    [AGE: 7h] EchoStar/Hughes Satellite Systems 8-K reveals pre-Ch.11 noteholder restructuring talks FAILED; primary financial disclosure confirms the $191M/yr EchoStar-Hughes satellite lease (was single-sourced) and shows Hughes standalone FCF of -$147M/subscriber base collapsing 549K→100K by 2030 — sharpens SIRION-1's 2GHz bid-credibility read.
    Directly extends the Satellite consolidation wave DISTRESS thread — the primary-confirmed $191M/yr J3 lease and the standalone FCF/subscriber collapse strengthen the existing read that EchoStar Corp/EchoStar Global (SIRION-1, the strongest named 2 GHz MSS bidder) remain structurally distinct, non-filing entities, while Hughes's own numbers show a satellite/consumer-broadband business in steep, board-acknowledged decline — useful calibration for SES's own competitive assessment of the 2 GHz MSS field ahead of the ~Sept consortium call.
  6. 2026-08-07[S1]open ↗
    [AGE: 17h] FCC unanimously adopts NPRM opening ~200MHz unlicensed spectrum (2.4GHz+5.8GHz) for direct-to-device satellite links, dropping the contested 900MHz band — new "D2D supply is abundant" ammunition for SpaceConnect against SES/Lynk's 2GHz MSS bid.
    This is a new *unlicensed* D2D lane — distinct from the licensed-MSS D2D fights (AST, Starlink, Amazon-Globalstar) that directly touch SES's own spectrum interests — but it materially widens the pool of D2D-capable spectrum with zero MSS-license requirement. That directly feeds SpaceConnect's (Amazon-led) argument in the live EC 2 GHz MSS consortium debate that D2D supply is already abundant and doesn't need a reserved-for-IRIS²-sovereignty carve-out, which SES/Lynk (the weakest 2GHz bidder per Farrar) is arguing against. Ahead of the ~September consortium call.
  7. 2026-08-04[S1]open ↗
    [AGE: 21h] Hughes Ch.11 8-K's fuller detail: lenders' Special Committee is probing a ~$190M/yr satellite-lease deal and a 2024 $1.03bn dividend Hughes paid parent EchoStar, alongside 400-of-1,275 layoffs and a CRO installation — the DISTRESS story just got a contested-intercompany-claims dimension.
    Deepens the DISTRESS logic of the Satellite consolidation wave thread beyond simple occurrence — a contested-related-party-transactions fight raises real clawback/preference exposure for EchoStar and signals Hughes's strategic pivot toward B2B/government/defense (an area SES/Intelsat General also competes in). The EchoStar-family liquidity picture ($440M parent cash pre-AT&T-close) is relevant context for the 2 GHz MSS thread's SIRION-1 bidder-strength assumption but should NOT be read as a reversal of it — the closing that "recapitalizes" EchoStar happened four weeks after this balance-sheet date; the correct next check is EchoStar's Q3 print or a post-close 8-K, not this one.
  8. 2026-08-03[S1]open ↗
    [AGE: 14h] Hughes Satellite Systems Corp filed Chapter 11 (S.D. Texas, Case 26-90739) after missing its $1.5bn notes' Aug 1 maturity — EchoStar parent, DISH, Sling, Boost Mobile explicitly excluded; confirms the DISTRESS leg of the satellite-consolidation wave this desk has tracked since 07-28.
    Resolves the DISTRESS logic of the Satellite consolidation wave thread — the desk's single most-watched open item since 07-28 lands. Read-across correction to avoid an over-read (per priors.md's Acquisition-cascade-check doctrine): the filing's entity list does NOT include EchoStar Global LLC — the entity actually holding the SIRION-1 2 GHz MSS asset via the 2019 Helios Wire/Sirion Holdings acquisition — nor EchoStar Corp itself. SIRION-1's standing as the strongest 2 GHz MSS bidder is not directly impaired by this filing; that read still rests on the separately-confirmed AT&T-sale recapitalization ($23bn, closed Jul 28), not on Hughes. The entity actually reorganizing is Hughes' consumer/enterprise GEO broadband business — the one losing ground to Starlink — pivoting toward enterprise/government/defense.
  9. 2026-08-01[S1]open ↗
    [AGE: ~44h] SES CEO Al-Saleh, in the H1 2026 earnings-call Q&A (not previously machine-read): IRIS²/SpaceRISE Rendez-vous 1 is "not weeks away, we are days away" — primary confirmation of a timeline yesterday's brief explicitly declined to adopt as fact, independently corroborated by a TIER-A analyst who was on the call.
    This is the sharpest primary-source confirmation this desk has had on IRIS²/SpaceRISE timing since exit-term-negotiation silence began in early July. Yesterday's brief cited only the prepared-remarks language ("final stages," no date) and explicitly declined to adopt Space Intel Report's paywalled "days away" headline as fact, flagging it as unconfirmed framing rather than a quoted phrase. This transcript resolves that: Al-Saleh said "days away" himself, on the record, in response to a direct analyst question — a genuine escalation in confidence and specificity, not a repeat of yesterday's push. It does not confirm a signed deal, a completion date, or which of the previously-tracked "compromises" were accepted, and CFO commentary confirms IRIS² P&L impact remains prospective (no H1 one-offs, ramp starts Q4). Read together with S2 below and the still-open Weak signal on SES's ~22% five-day share-price decline (despite this call's positive tone on both IRIS² and C-band), the market does not yet appear to be crediting either development.
  10. 2026-08-01[S2]open ↗
    [AGE: ~15h] FCC's Upper C-Band Order (FCC 26-46) was published in the Federal Register today (Doc. 2026-15598, effective 2026-09-29) — starts the only live 60-day protest/reconsideration clock on SES's ~$5.6bn/89% share of the C-band incentive payment, the tripwire yesterday's brief flagged as still outstanding.
    Federal Register publication — not the July 22 adoption or July 24 release — is what starts the live 60-day Section 316 protest/reconsideration-petition clock on the order that assigns SES ~$5.607bn/89% of the C-band gross incentive versus Eutelsat's $504m/8% and Telesat's $189m/3%. This is the window in which any party could formally challenge the incentive-payment split. It also sets the 2026-09-29 effective date ahead of which SES's Transition Plan (GN 25-59, still unfiled) is due; per the same July 30 earnings call read for S1, Al-Saleh reiterated SES intends to file it "by the end of the year" and has "no incentive" to delay clearing, given the deal's structure rewards early delivery.
  11. 2026-07-31[S1]open ↗
    [AGE: 21h] SES's own H1 2026 results (published 2026-07-30) state IRIS²/SpaceRISE "Rendez-vous 1 negotiations are in their final stages" — the first primary confirmation since the exit-term-negotiation silence began; underneath 89% reported Networks growth, pro-forma revenue/EBITDA fell 5.0%/6.2% like-for-like (Intelsat-inclusive basis).
    This is the exact "SES IR filing" gate the IRIS²/SpaceRISE EXISTENTIAL thread has been waiting on since exit-term-negotiation silence began (~24-25 days as of the prior brief). "Final stages" is a genuine, if incremental, positive: it confirms active, ongoing negotiation rather than stalled talks, and follows two member-state capital commitments (Poland, Spain) integrating into IRIS² rather than routing around it. It does not confirm a signed deal or resolve SES's exit-option question — no completion date, no confirmation of which "compromises" (per this desk's 06-29 tracking) were accepted. Read alongside the pro-forma -5.0%/-6.2% figures, the picture is mixed: SES's underlying (Intelsat-inclusive, like-for-like) commercial business is softening even as reported growth looks strong and IRIS² negotiations progress — a reminder that IRIS² optimism and organic commercial performance are two separate variables analysts should not conflate. The capex language confirms meoSphere Phase 1 spend is proceeding within the existing ~€700m envelope, not a new commitment.
  12. 2026-07-31[S2]open ↗
    [AGE: ~14h] FCC order (DA 26-797, released 2026-07-30) bars EchoStar from tapping its $2.4bn infrastructure-trust fund to pay an $8.8bn intercompany claim tied to DISH DBS bondholders, closing off a route EchoStar could have used to divert AT&T/SpaceX-sale-linked trust money into the DISH DBS bankruptcy estate.
    Not a direct SES revenue event, but a material data point on the Satellite consolidation wave DISTRESS logic and on EchoStar Corp's aggregate financial credibility as the weakest-positioned of the four 2 GHz MSS commercial-block bidders. The order is a regulatory guardrail closing a mechanism EchoStar's own bankruptcy filing suggested it might use to redirect trust money toward DISH DBS bondholders instead of the infrastructure contractors the fund was built for — a second consecutive regulatory action (after DA 26-783's Teltrium Cost Catalog decision) evidencing the FCC building its own guardrails against EchoStar/incumbent self-dealing rather than deferring to operator submissions (REGULATOR-BUILDS-ITS-OWN-NUMBERS pattern in priors). It leaves the underlying Hughes Network Systems Aug-1 maturity tripwire unresolved and unchanged — no new filing confirms an actual Hughes Chapter 11 petition as of this run; not re-pushed here as it clears no new escalation bar since the 07-30 brief's S2.
  13. 2026-07-30[S1]open ↗
    [AGE: 8h] Spain's Defence Ministry committed up to €2bn ($2.3bn) to a national multi-orbit satcom program directly integrated into IRIS², with SpaceRISE-member Hispasat leading ground-segment design and the Low-LEO layer — the second EU state (after Poland's €656M) to fund IRIS² rather than a rival national constellation in nine days.
    This is a direct, positive data point for the IRIS²/SpaceRISE EXISTENTIAL thread at a moment when SES itself remains in unresolved exit-term negotiation with the EC/SpaceRISE (silence now ~22-23 days per priors). Two things matter analytically. First, unlike Germany's reported interest in a national LEO alternative — which Eutelsat's CEO publicly criticized as risking "27 national constellations" fragmentation — Spain's program is explicitly architected to integrate INTO IRIS² rather than compete with it, with a SpaceRISE consortium member (Hispasat) given a named leadership role in ground segment and the Low-LEO layer. That is evidence the fragmentation risk is not universal: at least two member states (Poland, now Spain) are choosing to fund IRIS² rather than route around it. Second, national capital flowing into IRIS²-adjacent infrastructure strengthens the underlying business case SES is negotiating its exit terms against, even though SES does not appear to be a named beneficiary of this specific national contract (Hispasat is the named Spanish operator). This is a sovereign-demand signal, not a confirmed SES revenue event — it should raise, not resolve, the odds SES stays in a stronger negotiating position on the SpaceRISE exit.
  14. 2026-07-30[S2]open ↗
    [AGE: 26h] EchoStar's Hughes Network Systems is reportedly preparing to file Chapter 11 within days — as soon as this weekend, per WSJ — to avoid its Aug 1 $1.5bn note maturity, reversing yesterday's read that EchoStar's post-AT&T-close cash pile raised the odds of a parent-backstopped cure; the second EchoStar-family bankruptcy in a month.
    This corrects and sharpens yesterday's S1 analysis rather than simply extending it. Yesterday's brief noted EchoStar's $20.25bn AT&T-closing cash inflow "raises, without confirming, the odds of a cure or extension at Hughes" — this reporting suggests the opposite is unfolding: rather than backstopping Hughes with parent liquidity, Ergen appears to be choosing structural default (a second subsidiary-level Chapter 11) over a cash injection, even with the AT&T proceeds in hand. Two readings are both consistent with the facts and neither is confirmed: (a) EchoStar's leadership has concluded Hughes' legacy satellite-broadband business isn't worth funding through a full restructuring, echoing the "optimizing our remaining core satellite assets" language SatNews attributes to EchoStar leadership; or (b) the AT&T cash is earmarked for other priorities (the 2 GHz MSS commercial-block contest, or completing the DISH DBS Chapter 11 emergence) rather than a Hughes rescue. Either way, a second EchoStar-family bankruptcy within a month is a fresh data point on EchoStar Corp's overall financial credibility as the weakest-positioned of the four 2 GHz MSS commercial-block bidders (per Farrar's standing assessment) — even though Hughes itself, like the AT&T closing, does not directly touch EchoStar Global Australia's separate SIRION-1 ITU filing. THREAD READ: primarily a consolidation-wave DISTRESS-logic event, not a direct 2GHz-thread mover, but the two threads remain coupled through EchoStar Corp's aggregate balance-sheet credibility.

Scoped by docket: an item appears when its thread belongs to a board dossier or its text cites a proceeding above.

Open questions, live20 open · 6 resolved

Lifted verbatim from the dossiers' own numbered agendas. Numbering is stable by contract, so a gap is a question resolved and moved to the changelog.

US C-band spectrum & clearing economicsupdated 2026-08-24

  1. 1How does the CVR's 57.5%/42.5% (first 100 MHz)/100% (remaining 60 MHz) split map onto the FCC's confirmed $5.607B SES allocation? FCC 26-46 allocates by operator and deadline, never by MHz tranche (structural dynamics); this dossier's own proportional estimate (≈$4.12B net, implications for SES) stays illustrative, not confirmed. Evidence: SES's own SEC/IR disclosure of the CVR payout, or any SEC filing quantifying it.
  2. 2How much of SES's ~$2.62B satellite-cost line will Teltrium's Cost Catalog certify as reimbursable, given the FCC's own ~$203M/satellite benchmark runs roughly half of SES's implied ~$374M (structural dynamics) — a possible ~$1.2B shortfall? Evidence: SES's Transition Plan (due 2026-11-05); the Cost Catalog (due ~2027-01-24); Eutelsat/Telesat's own cost disclosures.
  3. 3Will a Section 316 protest against FCC 26-46 be filed before the 2026-08-30 window closes? None filed as of the latest pull (tracked series), 6 days out; SES got its own requested terms, so standing to protest is unclear. Evidence: any Section 316 protest in GN 25-59/18-122 before 2026-08-30.
  4. 4What renewal/replacement-expectancy rules will the FCC adopt for GSO stations under FCC-26-47's still-open FNPRM — processing-round status exchange, a 1-year "use it or lose it" proposal, multi-satellite- per-license renewal implications — bearing directly on SES's legacy GEO fleet at its now-20-year license term? Evidence: the FNPRM comment cycle and eventual Order in SB Docket 25-306.
  5. 5Is Entner's (Recon Analytics) claim that SpaceX will bid Auction 115 real evidence of intent, or single-analyst speculation? Farrar disconfirms (08-10, favoring EchoStar's CBRS spectrum instead); no primary SpaceX signal either way, and no new post from either analyst since. Evidence: any SpaceX FCC Form 175 filing in AU Docket 26-191.
  6. 6Will Auction 115 complete by its statutory 2027-07-04 deadline, given bidding starts only 2027-04-27 — roughly ten weeks for a 3,248-license auction? OBBBA is silent on remedy for a missed deadline. Evidence: the AU Docket 26-191 comment record (procedures closed 08-24, reply 09-08); any FCC contingency statement.
  7. 7Is SES the undisclosed customer behind Intuitive Machines' $600M, 3-satellite GEO order (tracked series) — built via Lanteris (formerly Maxar), SES's prior C-band clearing vendor? A real lead (CEO declined to confirm/deny a C-band link), not yet a fact; if confirmed it's direct evidence toward SES's own disclosed satellite count (structural dynamics). Evidence: an SES or Intuitive Machines statement, or an FCC filing, naming the customer.

2 GHz MSS & D2D spectrumupdated 2026-08-24

  1. 1Resolved — see the dossier changelog.
  2. 2Does the EC's ~Sept 2026 "call for interest" favour SpaceRISE's eligibility, and is it the same step as the 2028-2029 "selection procedure" Greenberg Traurig describes (#14), or distinct? Evidence: the call's text vs. COM(2026)311's Arts 6/9/10.
  3. 3Resolved — see the dossier changelog.
  4. 4Does the Nov 30, 2027 Spectrum Acquisition Closing land before or after the EU's own adoption timeline resolves (#14)? Severability means the date may matter less. Evidence: FCC closing-condition filings, SPCX investor updates, confirmation of #14.
  5. 5Does Viasat's loss of Rocket Lab as Equatys anchor investor materially delay or shrink Equatys? Financing remains undecided per Viasat's CEO. Evidence: Viasat 8-K/guidance or Space42 statements.
  6. 6Does AST's EU regulatory posture invoke its Farrar-criticized S-band filing, or the FCC-rejected "ITU priority doesn't confer exclusivity" theory? A joint Vodafone/AST response to Ofcom's 2GHz consultation exists but is unread (tracked series). Evidence: that response's content, or an EU/RSPG/ITRE submission naming the S-band asset.
  7. 7Does RSPG-vs-DNA governance friction affect RSPG's authority/timeline on the WRC-27 2GHz opinion? Evidence: full PolicyTracker text, RSPG's own position.
  8. 8Why has ITRE rapporteur assignment gone past thirteen weeks unexplained — anomaly, or the EC's own multi-year pace (#14)? Evidence: ITRE agendas/press releases naming a rapporteur.
  9. 9Does AST's Japan J-LEO downgrade read across to its EU 2GHz bid credibility, tracked in ast-spacemobile-lynk? Evidence: an EU/SpaceRISE decision naming or excluding AST on 2GHz.
  10. 10Does France/Germany's reservation ask ever translate into an ITRE amendment or rapporteur movement? Evidence: any ITRE document referencing the Franco-German position.
  11. 11Resolved — see the dossier changelog.
  12. 12Does Art 20's non-transferability survive a change of corporate control? Evidence: EC/RSPG guidance on change-of-control vs. transfer; deal-structure disclosure.
  13. 13Resolved — see the dossier changelog.
  14. 14Does the EC's own budget annex confirm Greenberg Traurig's timeline (adoption late 2027/2028, selection 2028-2029, rights 2029)? The single biggest open swing factor in the thesis, single-firm-sourced after Noerr's non-corroboration (Falsifier c); a further disconfirming search this pass found nothing new. Evidence: the EC's own annex, or a Commission/Parliament document citing the same years.
  15. 15Resolved — see the dossier changelog.
  16. 16Resolved — see the dossier changelog.
  17. 17Does the FCC grant or deny Sateliot's Application for Review (Docket 23-135 — tracked series) of DA-26-398? A grant would reopen the single-operator-exclusivity question SpaceX now defends domestically. Evidence: an FCC order resolving Docket 23-135.
  18. 18Does Elveo Mobile's now-confirmed 320-sat target (tracked series) change Farrar's "furthest from the finish line" read on SES/Lynk's own bid, or just add capital? Evidence: an Elveo/SES filing naming the 2GHz contest.
  19. 19Does SES/Lynk or SpaceConnect oppose Amazon Leo's D2D filing in its pleading cycle (tracked series, comments due Sep 17)? Evidence: ECFS filings under GN Docket 26-134.

What we changed our mind about4

The desk's own corrections on this beat, append-only and never pruned: the old claim, when it was believed, and what overturned it.

US C-band spectrum & clearing economics

believed 2026-07-23overturned 2026-07-30"the same July 22 meeting... unanimously adopted a 'Space Modernization Order'... that favors NGSO constellation operators — comp…
OLD CLAIM (believed 2026-07-23): "the same July 22 meeting... unanimously adopted a 'Space Modernization Order'... that favors NGSO constellation operators — compressed review timelines, fewer prior-authorization requirements for routine modifications... the pairing... is a directional signal about which business model the FCC's current posture favors at the margin." This was drawn entirely from secondary press (SpaceNews, Benzinga) at a point when FCC-26-47's own full text had not been read. OVERTURNED 2026-07-30: having read FCC-26-47's full text directly (sources/latest/fcc-docs/FCC-26-47.txt), the order is a mixed picture, not simply NGSO-favoring — and on the two structural questions with the clearest read-across to SES's own GEO fleet, it is GSO-incumbent- protective: the Commission explicitly declined to narrow the two-degree GSO spacing rule to US-facing operations only (retaining it in full over new-entrant objections), and extended the default GSO license term from 15 to 20 years. See STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS and IMPLICATIONS FOR SES for the corrected read. The general "streamlined licensing overall, and NGSO replacement rules loosened" observation still stands — only the "directionally favors NGSO at the margin" framing, stated without qualification, is corrected.
believed 2026-07-30overturned 2026-08-04applying the CVR split proportionally by MHz to the FCC's confirmed $5.607B SES incentive allocation yields ≈$4.12B gross, "befor…
OLD CLAIM (believed 2026-07-30): applying the CVR split proportionally by MHz to the FCC's confirmed $5.607B SES incentive allocation yields ≈$4.12B gross, "before the ~$3.75B all-in clearing cost SES itself has disclosed. That nets to roughly +$370M — still close to breakeven." This treated SES's disclosed clearing cost as a subtraction from the incentive payment. OVERTURNED 2026-08-04: FCC 26-46's own text (paras. 114-140, read in full this run) and SES's own CFO (H1 2026 earnings call, read this run from inbox/) both confirm that clearing-cost reimbursement (paid by new Upper C-band licensees via the Upper C-band Clearinghouse) and incentive payment (the $6.3B pool) are separate financial mechanisms — the FCC explicitly rejected an earth-station-count metric for allocating INCENTIVE shares because it is "more appropriately viewed as a proxy for the transition costs... [which] will be reimbursed through the Upper C-band transition cost reimbursement program" (para. 137). SES's own CFO independently confirmed 2026 C-band capex is "fully reimbursable over time" and "not expected to impact our long-term capital allocation, leaving the full amount of incentive payment as the potential economic benefit." SES's net capture is therefore much closer to the full ≈$4.12B illustrative figure than to "close to breakeven" — the real remaining downside is a possible shortfall (up to ~$1.2B) if Teltrium's Cost Catalog reimburses satellite costs nearer the FCC's ~$203M/satellite benchmark than SES's own ~$374M/satellite filed figure, not a blanket ~$3.75B net cost. See STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS and IMPLICATIONS FOR SES for the corrected arithmetic and revised OPEN Q2. This is the dossier's second self-reversal of its own prior stated claim (the first was FCC-26-47's directional characterization, above), and — like that one — it stems from finally reading a specific primary-text section (paras. 114-140) this dossier had cited around but not read in full on 07-30.

2 GHz MSS & D2D spectrum

believed 2026-07-05overturned 2026-07-08"prospectively Rocket Lab/Iridium (L-band + IMT). Each added credible non-Musk D2D operator weakens the scarcity argument FOR the…
Old claim (stated 2026-07-05): "prospectively Rocket Lab/Iridium (L-band + IMT). Each added credible non-Musk D2D operator weakens the scarcity argument FOR the European reserve while strengthening the precedent that non-SpaceX D2D works" — i.e., the dossier treated the Rocket Lab-Iridium deal as adding to the "credible non-Musk D2D operator" count that undercuts the EU reserve's scarcity rationale. Overturned: 2026-07-08, by Tim Farrar's June 29, 2026 analysis (tmfassociates.com, "RocketLab flips the table…"), read alongside Rocket Lab's own investor materials: Iridium's post-acquisition strategy explicitly pivots away from consumer D2D toward aviation-safety, PNT, and DoD niches, "independent of Starlink" — D2D is a hedge, not the thesis. Rocket Lab also withdrew as Viasat/Space42's planned ~$1B Equatys anchor investor, weakening a second non-Musk D2D contender rather than strengthening the roster. The correct read this week is that the credible non-Musk D2D field got thinner.
believed 2026-07-08overturned 2026-07-14"two of the four EU 2 GHz commercial-block bidders hold or are acquiring real global ITU priority filings in-band — EchoStar (SIR…
Old claim (stated 2026-07-08): "two of the four EU 2 GHz commercial-block bidders hold or are acquiring real global ITU priority filings in-band — EchoStar (SIRION-1)... and AST SpaceMobile (bought outright..., Aug 2025, $64.5M)... SES/Lynk and Viasat do not... unbuilt orbital paperwork is cheap; usable, market-cleared terrestrial capacity is where the real value sits" — the dossier treated AST's S-band buy as a second real in-band ITU priority asset, cheaper than EchoStar's but qualitatively comparable. Overturned: 2026-07-14, by Tim Farrar's Aug 13, 2025 assessment (via Light Reading, contemporaneous with the AST deal itself but not surfaced by this dossier's original July 8 pass, which read the BusinessWire announcement and its corroborators but not analyst reaction to it): AST's S-band filings carry lower ITU priority than *both* EchoStar's and Omnispace's competing filings, and cover an equatorial orbital geometry that cannot serve Europe, Japan, the US, or Canada — the markets AST needs. Farrar calls the asset "a distraction," not a competitive holding, and notes its cheapness reflects that assessment rather than the market underpricing a legal lever. Correct read: only EchoStar's SIRION-1 (via the still-unclosed SpaceX transfer) is a credible in-band ITU priority asset among the four bidders; AST's parallel claim does not meaningfully strengthen its position.

This page publishes the state of play: filings, stages, deadlines, and the desk's own tracked questions — all from the public record. It does not publish positions SES should take in open proceedings. Board last verified 2026-08-20.