| Proceeding | Stage | Next | SES posture | Verified |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USAU Docket 26-191Auction 115 — 3,248 Upper C-band flexible-use licenses (DA 26-769) | comments2026-07-24rulemaking | not filed | 2026-08-13 | |
| USFCC 26-46Upper C-band Report & Order — 160 MHz clearing, $6.3B incentive pool (GN 25-59, 18-122) | order adopted2026-07-22rulemaking | today | party to | 2026-08-18 |
| EUCOM(2026)311EU 2 GHz MSS Regulation — three-pool band split (Arts 6/9/10), Art 20 incumbent extension to ~May 2029 | committee2026-05-28legislative | est. | monitoring | 2026-08-20 |
| USSAT-LOA-20260601-00224Amazon Leo 5,105-satellite D2D constellation application (DA 26-866; contingent on the open GN 26-134 Globalstar transfer) | public notice2026-08-18licensing | in 18 days | monitoring | 2026-08-20 |
| USET Docket 26-169Unleashing Unlicensed Spectrum for Direct-to-Device (FCC 26-51) — Part 15 bands (2.4/5.8 GHz) opened to D2D satellite use | NPRM2026-08-06rulemaking | monitoring | 2026-08-08 | |
| USFCC 26-26NGSO-GSO EPFD replacement — throughput-based GSO protection standard, in force | effective2026-07-13rulemaking | filed | 2026-08-18 | |
| UKFuture use of the 2 GHz MSS band (Ofcom)Ofcom consultation on the UK 2 GHz MSS band past the May 2027 incumbent expiry | closed2026-08-18consultation | monitoring | 2026-08-20 |
Posture records the public docket only: filed · not filed · party to · monitoring. Each row's primary document is linked on its identifier; "verified" is the date the row was last checked against it. Board source: dockets.md, maintained by the dossier deep-dive routine.
Dated obligations17
- 30 Aug 2026todayUS C-band Section 316 protest window closes (FCC 26-46; none filed as of the 2026-08-18 ECFS pull)FCC 26-46 para. 194; 91 FR 48700 (FR publication 2026-07-31 started the 30-day window)
- 8 Sep 2026in 9 daysAuction 115 bidding-procedures reply comments due (AU Docket 26-191)FCC DA 26-769; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
- ~Sep 2026est.EC "call for interest" on EU 2 GHz MSS expected (~Sept per COM(2026)311 track)dossiers/mss-2ghz-spectrum.md (open question 2)
- 17 Sep 2026in 18 daysComments/petitions to deny due, Amazon Leo's 5,105-sat D2D filing (SAT-LOA-20260601-00224)FCC DA 26-866 (released 2026-08-18); briefs/2026-08-20T0347Z.md
- 28 Sep 2026in 29 daysOppositions/responses due, Amazon Leo's 5,105-sat D2D filingFCC DA 26-866 (released 2026-08-18); briefs/2026-08-20T0347Z.md
- 29 Sep 2026in 30 daysFCC 26-46 Upper C-band order effective date91 FR 48700 (effective-date field); dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
- 29 Sep 2026in 30 daysest.Upper C-band Clearinghouse selection committee must convene by ~this date (60 days from FR publication; SES holds one of nine seats)FCC 26-46 para. 156-158; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
- 1 Oct 2026in 32 daysRelocation Coordinator selection committee convenes no later than this date (one rep per eligible operator)FCC 26-46 para. 170; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
- 5 Oct 2026in 36 daysReplies due, Amazon Leo's 5,105-sat D2D filingFCC DA 26-866 (released 2026-08-18); briefs/2026-08-20T0347Z.md
- 6 Oct 2026in 37 daysRadio altimeter retrofit rebate draft categories due out for comment (Upper C-band Clearinghouse-administered)FCC 26-46 para. 177-182; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
- 5 Nov 2026in 10 weeksSES/Eutelsat/Telesat Upper C-band Transition Plans due (firm statutory deadline)FCC 26-46 para. 163, 865; 47 CFR § 27.1412(e); dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
- 12 Nov 2026in 11 weeksDISH Wireless §363 sale + plan-confirmation hearing pushed to 2026-11-12 or 2026-12-02 (Judge Lopez, after Crown Castle ~$3.5B and American Tower ~$2B won discovery over Dish's timeline — a delay, not a ruling)priors.md RESOLVED 2026-08-24 (Inside Towers/broadbandbreakfast/Octus); briefs/2026-08-24T0340Z.md
- 15 Dec 2026Clearinghouse selection committee must notify FCC of its choice (fallback: majority vote by 2027-01-15)FCC 26-46 para. 156-158; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
- 24 Jan 2027est.Teltrium Cost Catalog must finalize by ~this date (6 months from FCC 26-46 release)FCC DA 26-783; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
- 27 Apr 2027est.Auction 115 bidding tentatively scheduled to commenceFCC DA 26-769 (tentative); dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
- 4 Jul 2027Auction 115 statutory completion deadline (OBBBA: bidding must complete, not merely commence)Pub. L. No. 119-21 § 40002(b)(2) via FCC DA 26-769 para. 1; dossiers/c-band-spectrum.md
- 31 Dec 2027est.ESA European Launcher Challenge Component A deadline — must reach orbit for ESA to fund operational launches thru 2030; Isar targeting late 2027europeanspaceflight.com 2026-08-27; briefs/2026-08-28T0338Z.md
From the desk's dated-events ledger, confidence-tagged; the full calendar is at Calendar.
What moved · 30 days14
- [AGE: 19h] US Trustee urges a bankruptcy examiner into $1.5bn of alleged EchoStar self-dealing against Ch.11 subsidiary Hughes, incl. its cut of the SpaceX spectrum sale; contested hearing today, outcome pending.EchoStar/Hughes is SES's most heavily tracked distress case on the Satellite consolidation wave thread — a 2 GHz MSS bidder (SIRION-1, held at EchoStar Corp/EchoStar Global, NOT a Ch.11 filing entity) and US C-band incumbent whose corporate cash position and governance credibility both bear on that competitive contest. This escalates a claim priors.md already tracks (the Special Committee's authority to prosecute fraudulent-transfer/fiduciary-duty claims against EchoStar incl. Ergen) by having the creditors themselves argue that Special Committee is compromised — and for the first time ties the SpaceX spectrum-sale proceeds directly into the self-dealing allegations, a new financial-architecture angle on EchoStar's post-AT&T-sale recapitalization story.
- [AGE: 1d] The FCC formally accepted Amazon Leo's 5,105-satellite direct-to-device application and set its comment deadlines (Sep 17, Sep 28, Oct 5) — the venue SES/Lynk must use to contest a 7th funded D2D architecture ahead of the EU's 2 GHz MSS spectrum fight.Sets the concrete near-term calendar SES/Lynk (2 GHz MSS bidders) and other opponents must act within to formally oppose or shape Amazon's D2D system — a dated tripwire distinct from the underlying filing already tracked since July. A 7th funded D2D architecture (after Starlink, AST, Skylo, EchoStar/SIRION-1, Lynk/Elveo, and Amazon's own Kuiper-D2D intent) formally entering FCC pleading process reinforces SpaceConnect's "D2D supply is abundant" argument against SES/Lynk's EU 2 GHz MSS bid.
- [AGE: 23h] SES-backed Lynk Global completed its merger with spectrum-holder Omnispace (closed Aug 14), rebranding as Elveo Mobile — SES named a lead strategic investor in the combined D2D operator, whose spectrum position now feeds directly into SES/Lynk's contest for the EU's 2 GHz MSS allocation.This is SES's own capital allocation into the D2D competitive field, not just competitive intelligence — priors.md's EXISTENTIAL 2 GHz MSS thread already carries "SES/Lynk weakest, only EchoStar's SIRION-1 credible" as the standing base case. Elveo now combines Lynk's MNO commercial base with Omnispace's licensed multi-band MSS spectrum rights (the same S-band family contested in the EU's COM(2026)311 process) under continued/expanded SES backing — worth a dossier pass (`dossiers/mss-2ghz-spectrum.md`) to assess whether this changes the "weakest bidder" read for the ~September consortium call, rather than assuming the merger is priced into that assessment already. Separately strengthens the GEO/MEO-to-LEO multi-orbit integration narrative SES is building (see also Telesat's own unprompted orbital-relay positioning, already tracked under Space-data/multi-mission platform).
- [AGE: 11h] AST SpaceMobile's Q2 2026 results (filed/announced Aug 10): revenue $31.5M (missed $35.2M consensus), backlog ~$1.3bn, and over $125M in new US government contract awards this quarter for undisclosed "national-security applications" — clears the DoD-contract materiality floor for an on-watchlist D2D player.AST SpaceMobile competes with SES/Lynk on the 2 GHz MSS bid and is a D2D-competitive-field anchor. The >$125M government-contract cluster clears priors.md's DOD/GOVERNMENT-CONTRACT MATERIALITY FLOOR (>=$100M to an on-watchlist counterparty defaults to push) even without an agency breakdown — "national-security applications" funding flowing to a commercial D2D operator is a further data point for the "US government treats commercial D2D/LEO as dual-use sovereign infrastructure" thesis this desk already tracks via Rocket Lab/K2 Space/Xona. The revenue miss + reaffirmed guidance is a mixed signal — commercial ramp is real but lumpy; not itself thesis-moving.
- [AGE: 7h] EchoStar/Hughes Satellite Systems 8-K reveals pre-Ch.11 noteholder restructuring talks FAILED; primary financial disclosure confirms the $191M/yr EchoStar-Hughes satellite lease (was single-sourced) and shows Hughes standalone FCF of -$147M/subscriber base collapsing 549K→100K by 2030 — sharpens SIRION-1's 2GHz bid-credibility read.Directly extends the Satellite consolidation wave DISTRESS thread — the primary-confirmed $191M/yr J3 lease and the standalone FCF/subscriber collapse strengthen the existing read that EchoStar Corp/EchoStar Global (SIRION-1, the strongest named 2 GHz MSS bidder) remain structurally distinct, non-filing entities, while Hughes's own numbers show a satellite/consumer-broadband business in steep, board-acknowledged decline — useful calibration for SES's own competitive assessment of the 2 GHz MSS field ahead of the ~Sept consortium call.
- [AGE: 17h] FCC unanimously adopts NPRM opening ~200MHz unlicensed spectrum (2.4GHz+5.8GHz) for direct-to-device satellite links, dropping the contested 900MHz band — new "D2D supply is abundant" ammunition for SpaceConnect against SES/Lynk's 2GHz MSS bid.This is a new *unlicensed* D2D lane — distinct from the licensed-MSS D2D fights (AST, Starlink, Amazon-Globalstar) that directly touch SES's own spectrum interests — but it materially widens the pool of D2D-capable spectrum with zero MSS-license requirement. That directly feeds SpaceConnect's (Amazon-led) argument in the live EC 2 GHz MSS consortium debate that D2D supply is already abundant and doesn't need a reserved-for-IRIS²-sovereignty carve-out, which SES/Lynk (the weakest 2GHz bidder per Farrar) is arguing against. Ahead of the ~September consortium call.
- [AGE: 21h] Hughes Ch.11 8-K's fuller detail: lenders' Special Committee is probing a ~$190M/yr satellite-lease deal and a 2024 $1.03bn dividend Hughes paid parent EchoStar, alongside 400-of-1,275 layoffs and a CRO installation — the DISTRESS story just got a contested-intercompany-claims dimension.Deepens the DISTRESS logic of the Satellite consolidation wave thread beyond simple occurrence — a contested-related-party-transactions fight raises real clawback/preference exposure for EchoStar and signals Hughes's strategic pivot toward B2B/government/defense (an area SES/Intelsat General also competes in). The EchoStar-family liquidity picture ($440M parent cash pre-AT&T-close) is relevant context for the 2 GHz MSS thread's SIRION-1 bidder-strength assumption but should NOT be read as a reversal of it — the closing that "recapitalizes" EchoStar happened four weeks after this balance-sheet date; the correct next check is EchoStar's Q3 print or a post-close 8-K, not this one.
- [AGE: 14h] Hughes Satellite Systems Corp filed Chapter 11 (S.D. Texas, Case 26-90739) after missing its $1.5bn notes' Aug 1 maturity — EchoStar parent, DISH, Sling, Boost Mobile explicitly excluded; confirms the DISTRESS leg of the satellite-consolidation wave this desk has tracked since 07-28.Resolves the DISTRESS logic of the Satellite consolidation wave thread — the desk's single most-watched open item since 07-28 lands. Read-across correction to avoid an over-read (per priors.md's Acquisition-cascade-check doctrine): the filing's entity list does NOT include EchoStar Global LLC — the entity actually holding the SIRION-1 2 GHz MSS asset via the 2019 Helios Wire/Sirion Holdings acquisition — nor EchoStar Corp itself. SIRION-1's standing as the strongest 2 GHz MSS bidder is not directly impaired by this filing; that read still rests on the separately-confirmed AT&T-sale recapitalization ($23bn, closed Jul 28), not on Hughes. The entity actually reorganizing is Hughes' consumer/enterprise GEO broadband business — the one losing ground to Starlink — pivoting toward enterprise/government/defense.
- [AGE: ~44h] SES CEO Al-Saleh, in the H1 2026 earnings-call Q&A (not previously machine-read): IRIS²/SpaceRISE Rendez-vous 1 is "not weeks away, we are days away" — primary confirmation of a timeline yesterday's brief explicitly declined to adopt as fact, independently corroborated by a TIER-A analyst who was on the call.This is the sharpest primary-source confirmation this desk has had on IRIS²/SpaceRISE timing since exit-term-negotiation silence began in early July. Yesterday's brief cited only the prepared-remarks language ("final stages," no date) and explicitly declined to adopt Space Intel Report's paywalled "days away" headline as fact, flagging it as unconfirmed framing rather than a quoted phrase. This transcript resolves that: Al-Saleh said "days away" himself, on the record, in response to a direct analyst question — a genuine escalation in confidence and specificity, not a repeat of yesterday's push. It does not confirm a signed deal, a completion date, or which of the previously-tracked "compromises" were accepted, and CFO commentary confirms IRIS² P&L impact remains prospective (no H1 one-offs, ramp starts Q4). Read together with S2 below and the still-open Weak signal on SES's ~22% five-day share-price decline (despite this call's positive tone on both IRIS² and C-band), the market does not yet appear to be crediting either development.
- [AGE: ~15h] FCC's Upper C-Band Order (FCC 26-46) was published in the Federal Register today (Doc. 2026-15598, effective 2026-09-29) — starts the only live 60-day protest/reconsideration clock on SES's ~$5.6bn/89% share of the C-band incentive payment, the tripwire yesterday's brief flagged as still outstanding.Federal Register publication — not the July 22 adoption or July 24 release — is what starts the live 60-day Section 316 protest/reconsideration-petition clock on the order that assigns SES ~$5.607bn/89% of the C-band gross incentive versus Eutelsat's $504m/8% and Telesat's $189m/3%. This is the window in which any party could formally challenge the incentive-payment split. It also sets the 2026-09-29 effective date ahead of which SES's Transition Plan (GN 25-59, still unfiled) is due; per the same July 30 earnings call read for S1, Al-Saleh reiterated SES intends to file it "by the end of the year" and has "no incentive" to delay clearing, given the deal's structure rewards early delivery.
- [AGE: 21h] SES's own H1 2026 results (published 2026-07-30) state IRIS²/SpaceRISE "Rendez-vous 1 negotiations are in their final stages" — the first primary confirmation since the exit-term-negotiation silence began; underneath 89% reported Networks growth, pro-forma revenue/EBITDA fell 5.0%/6.2% like-for-like (Intelsat-inclusive basis).This is the exact "SES IR filing" gate the IRIS²/SpaceRISE EXISTENTIAL thread has been waiting on since exit-term-negotiation silence began (~24-25 days as of the prior brief). "Final stages" is a genuine, if incremental, positive: it confirms active, ongoing negotiation rather than stalled talks, and follows two member-state capital commitments (Poland, Spain) integrating into IRIS² rather than routing around it. It does not confirm a signed deal or resolve SES's exit-option question — no completion date, no confirmation of which "compromises" (per this desk's 06-29 tracking) were accepted. Read alongside the pro-forma -5.0%/-6.2% figures, the picture is mixed: SES's underlying (Intelsat-inclusive, like-for-like) commercial business is softening even as reported growth looks strong and IRIS² negotiations progress — a reminder that IRIS² optimism and organic commercial performance are two separate variables analysts should not conflate. The capex language confirms meoSphere Phase 1 spend is proceeding within the existing ~€700m envelope, not a new commitment.
- [AGE: ~14h] FCC order (DA 26-797, released 2026-07-30) bars EchoStar from tapping its $2.4bn infrastructure-trust fund to pay an $8.8bn intercompany claim tied to DISH DBS bondholders, closing off a route EchoStar could have used to divert AT&T/SpaceX-sale-linked trust money into the DISH DBS bankruptcy estate.Not a direct SES revenue event, but a material data point on the Satellite consolidation wave DISTRESS logic and on EchoStar Corp's aggregate financial credibility as the weakest-positioned of the four 2 GHz MSS commercial-block bidders. The order is a regulatory guardrail closing a mechanism EchoStar's own bankruptcy filing suggested it might use to redirect trust money toward DISH DBS bondholders instead of the infrastructure contractors the fund was built for — a second consecutive regulatory action (after DA 26-783's Teltrium Cost Catalog decision) evidencing the FCC building its own guardrails against EchoStar/incumbent self-dealing rather than deferring to operator submissions (REGULATOR-BUILDS-ITS-OWN-NUMBERS pattern in priors). It leaves the underlying Hughes Network Systems Aug-1 maturity tripwire unresolved and unchanged — no new filing confirms an actual Hughes Chapter 11 petition as of this run; not re-pushed here as it clears no new escalation bar since the 07-30 brief's S2.
- [AGE: 8h] Spain's Defence Ministry committed up to €2bn ($2.3bn) to a national multi-orbit satcom program directly integrated into IRIS², with SpaceRISE-member Hispasat leading ground-segment design and the Low-LEO layer — the second EU state (after Poland's €656M) to fund IRIS² rather than a rival national constellation in nine days.This is a direct, positive data point for the IRIS²/SpaceRISE EXISTENTIAL thread at a moment when SES itself remains in unresolved exit-term negotiation with the EC/SpaceRISE (silence now ~22-23 days per priors). Two things matter analytically. First, unlike Germany's reported interest in a national LEO alternative — which Eutelsat's CEO publicly criticized as risking "27 national constellations" fragmentation — Spain's program is explicitly architected to integrate INTO IRIS² rather than compete with it, with a SpaceRISE consortium member (Hispasat) given a named leadership role in ground segment and the Low-LEO layer. That is evidence the fragmentation risk is not universal: at least two member states (Poland, now Spain) are choosing to fund IRIS² rather than route around it. Second, national capital flowing into IRIS²-adjacent infrastructure strengthens the underlying business case SES is negotiating its exit terms against, even though SES does not appear to be a named beneficiary of this specific national contract (Hispasat is the named Spanish operator). This is a sovereign-demand signal, not a confirmed SES revenue event — it should raise, not resolve, the odds SES stays in a stronger negotiating position on the SpaceRISE exit.
- [AGE: 26h] EchoStar's Hughes Network Systems is reportedly preparing to file Chapter 11 within days — as soon as this weekend, per WSJ — to avoid its Aug 1 $1.5bn note maturity, reversing yesterday's read that EchoStar's post-AT&T-close cash pile raised the odds of a parent-backstopped cure; the second EchoStar-family bankruptcy in a month.This corrects and sharpens yesterday's S1 analysis rather than simply extending it. Yesterday's brief noted EchoStar's $20.25bn AT&T-closing cash inflow "raises, without confirming, the odds of a cure or extension at Hughes" — this reporting suggests the opposite is unfolding: rather than backstopping Hughes with parent liquidity, Ergen appears to be choosing structural default (a second subsidiary-level Chapter 11) over a cash injection, even with the AT&T proceeds in hand. Two readings are both consistent with the facts and neither is confirmed: (a) EchoStar's leadership has concluded Hughes' legacy satellite-broadband business isn't worth funding through a full restructuring, echoing the "optimizing our remaining core satellite assets" language SatNews attributes to EchoStar leadership; or (b) the AT&T cash is earmarked for other priorities (the 2 GHz MSS commercial-block contest, or completing the DISH DBS Chapter 11 emergence) rather than a Hughes rescue. Either way, a second EchoStar-family bankruptcy within a month is a fresh data point on EchoStar Corp's overall financial credibility as the weakest-positioned of the four 2 GHz MSS commercial-block bidders (per Farrar's standing assessment) — even though Hughes itself, like the AT&T closing, does not directly touch EchoStar Global Australia's separate SIRION-1 ITU filing. THREAD READ: primarily a consolidation-wave DISTRESS-logic event, not a direct 2GHz-thread mover, but the two threads remain coupled through EchoStar Corp's aggregate balance-sheet credibility.
Scoped by docket: an item appears when its thread belongs to a board dossier or its text cites a proceeding above.
Open questions, live20 open · 6 resolved
Lifted verbatim from the dossiers' own numbered agendas. Numbering is stable by contract, so a gap is a question resolved and moved to the changelog.
US C-band spectrum & clearing economicsupdated 2026-08-24
- 1How does the CVR's 57.5%/42.5% (first 100 MHz)/100% (remaining 60 MHz) split map onto the FCC's confirmed $5.607B SES allocation? FCC 26-46 allocates by operator and deadline, never by MHz tranche (structural dynamics); this dossier's own proportional estimate (≈$4.12B net, implications for SES) stays illustrative, not confirmed. Evidence: SES's own SEC/IR disclosure of the CVR payout, or any SEC filing quantifying it.
- 2How much of SES's ~$2.62B satellite-cost line will Teltrium's Cost Catalog certify as reimbursable, given the FCC's own ~$203M/satellite benchmark runs roughly half of SES's implied ~$374M (structural dynamics) — a possible ~$1.2B shortfall? Evidence: SES's Transition Plan (due 2026-11-05); the Cost Catalog (due ~2027-01-24); Eutelsat/Telesat's own cost disclosures.
- 3Will a Section 316 protest against FCC 26-46 be filed before the 2026-08-30 window closes? None filed as of the latest pull (tracked series), 6 days out; SES got its own requested terms, so standing to protest is unclear. Evidence: any Section 316 protest in GN 25-59/18-122 before 2026-08-30.
- 4What renewal/replacement-expectancy rules will the FCC adopt for GSO stations under FCC-26-47's still-open FNPRM — processing-round status exchange, a 1-year "use it or lose it" proposal, multi-satellite- per-license renewal implications — bearing directly on SES's legacy GEO fleet at its now-20-year license term? Evidence: the FNPRM comment cycle and eventual Order in SB Docket 25-306.
- 5Is Entner's (Recon Analytics) claim that SpaceX will bid Auction 115 real evidence of intent, or single-analyst speculation? Farrar disconfirms (08-10, favoring EchoStar's CBRS spectrum instead); no primary SpaceX signal either way, and no new post from either analyst since. Evidence: any SpaceX FCC Form 175 filing in AU Docket 26-191.
- 6Will Auction 115 complete by its statutory 2027-07-04 deadline, given bidding starts only 2027-04-27 — roughly ten weeks for a 3,248-license auction? OBBBA is silent on remedy for a missed deadline. Evidence: the AU Docket 26-191 comment record (procedures closed 08-24, reply 09-08); any FCC contingency statement.
- 7Is SES the undisclosed customer behind Intuitive Machines' $600M, 3-satellite GEO order (tracked series) — built via Lanteris (formerly Maxar), SES's prior C-band clearing vendor? A real lead (CEO declined to confirm/deny a C-band link), not yet a fact; if confirmed it's direct evidence toward SES's own disclosed satellite count (structural dynamics). Evidence: an SES or Intuitive Machines statement, or an FCC filing, naming the customer.
2 GHz MSS & D2D spectrumupdated 2026-08-24
- 1Resolved — see the dossier changelog.
- 2Does the EC's ~Sept 2026 "call for interest" favour SpaceRISE's eligibility, and is it the same step as the 2028-2029 "selection procedure" Greenberg Traurig describes (#14), or distinct? Evidence: the call's text vs. COM(2026)311's Arts 6/9/10.
- 3Resolved — see the dossier changelog.
- 4Does the Nov 30, 2027 Spectrum Acquisition Closing land before or after the EU's own adoption timeline resolves (#14)? Severability means the date may matter less. Evidence: FCC closing-condition filings, SPCX investor updates, confirmation of #14.
- 5Does Viasat's loss of Rocket Lab as Equatys anchor investor materially delay or shrink Equatys? Financing remains undecided per Viasat's CEO. Evidence: Viasat 8-K/guidance or Space42 statements.
- 6Does AST's EU regulatory posture invoke its Farrar-criticized S-band filing, or the FCC-rejected "ITU priority doesn't confer exclusivity" theory? A joint Vodafone/AST response to Ofcom's 2GHz consultation exists but is unread (tracked series). Evidence: that response's content, or an EU/RSPG/ITRE submission naming the S-band asset.
- 7Does RSPG-vs-DNA governance friction affect RSPG's authority/timeline on the WRC-27 2GHz opinion? Evidence: full PolicyTracker text, RSPG's own position.
- 8Why has ITRE rapporteur assignment gone past thirteen weeks unexplained — anomaly, or the EC's own multi-year pace (#14)? Evidence: ITRE agendas/press releases naming a rapporteur.
- 9Does AST's Japan J-LEO downgrade read across to its EU 2GHz bid credibility, tracked in ast-spacemobile-lynk? Evidence: an EU/SpaceRISE decision naming or excluding AST on 2GHz.
- 10Does France/Germany's reservation ask ever translate into an ITRE amendment or rapporteur movement? Evidence: any ITRE document referencing the Franco-German position.
- 11Resolved — see the dossier changelog.
- 12Does Art 20's non-transferability survive a change of corporate control? Evidence: EC/RSPG guidance on change-of-control vs. transfer; deal-structure disclosure.
- 13Resolved — see the dossier changelog.
- 14Does the EC's own budget annex confirm Greenberg Traurig's timeline (adoption late 2027/2028, selection 2028-2029, rights 2029)? The single biggest open swing factor in the thesis, single-firm-sourced after Noerr's non-corroboration (Falsifier c); a further disconfirming search this pass found nothing new. Evidence: the EC's own annex, or a Commission/Parliament document citing the same years.
- 15Resolved — see the dossier changelog.
- 16Resolved — see the dossier changelog.
- 17Does the FCC grant or deny Sateliot's Application for Review (Docket 23-135 — tracked series) of DA-26-398? A grant would reopen the single-operator-exclusivity question SpaceX now defends domestically. Evidence: an FCC order resolving Docket 23-135.
- 18Does Elveo Mobile's now-confirmed 320-sat target (tracked series) change Farrar's "furthest from the finish line" read on SES/Lynk's own bid, or just add capital? Evidence: an Elveo/SES filing naming the 2GHz contest.
- 19Does SES/Lynk or SpaceConnect oppose Amazon Leo's D2D filing in its pleading cycle (tracked series, comments due Sep 17)? Evidence: ECFS filings under GN Docket 26-134.
What we changed our mind about4
The desk's own corrections on this beat, append-only and never pruned: the old claim, when it was believed, and what overturned it.
US C-band spectrum & clearing economics
believed 2026-07-23overturned 2026-07-30"the same July 22 meeting... unanimously adopted a 'Space Modernization Order'... that favors NGSO constellation operators — comp…
believed 2026-07-30overturned 2026-08-04applying the CVR split proportionally by MHz to the FCC's confirmed $5.607B SES incentive allocation yields ≈$4.12B gross, "befor…
2 GHz MSS & D2D spectrum
believed 2026-07-05overturned 2026-07-08"prospectively Rocket Lab/Iridium (L-band + IMT). Each added credible non-Musk D2D operator weakens the scarcity argument FOR the…
believed 2026-07-08overturned 2026-07-14"two of the four EU 2 GHz commercial-block bidders hold or are acquiring real global ITU priority filings in-band — EchoStar (SIR…
This page publishes the state of play: filings, stages, deadlines, and the desk's own tracked questions — all from the public record. It does not publish positions SES should take in open proceedings. Board last verified 2026-08-20.