SATCOM INTELSatellite & space-infrastructure intelligence, read through SESBrief 2026-08-29 · 15:14 UTC
Operator fleets & orbital tracking
Fleet
1 mission tracked
This page compares competitor fleets: LEO constellation economics side by side, on the same numbers. It also tracks live altitude and health for missions the desk follows from public orbital data. GEO and SES-specific fleet facts will join later.
Fleet capability · what each operator can do
Two reads on raw capability, each plotting the whole field on two axes so the tradeoff shows. SpaceX's edge is structural: denser satellites on cheaper launches it owns. Each chart names its sources; softer numbers (analyst estimates, market-launch prices, the Lightspeed capacity scenario) are labelled as such.
Only Starlink builds satellite capacity for under $10k a gigabitHow much a satellite carries against what it costs to build; down-and-right is better
Show the numbers
Only Starlink builds satellite capacity for under $10k a gigabit
Gbps / satellite
Cost / satellite ($M)
Starlink V3
1000
1.83
Starlink V2 mini
96
0.79
Lightspeed
40
11.6
Kuiper
36
1.75
OneWeb
7.2
1.5
Down-and-right wins: more Gbps per satellite, cheaper to build. The dashed line is $10k per Gbps of built capacity — below it beats that, above it doesn't. Starlink is the only operator below it: V2 mini builds capacity at ~$8k/Gbps and V3 at ~$1.8k/Gbps, an order of magnitude under the pack (Kuiper $49k, OneWeb $208k, Lightspeed $290k) that clumps against the left axis. On a linear scale, the gap is the whole story.Starlink cost/sat + capacity: Quilty Starlink Model 2026 (V2 mini opt $0.79M / 96 Gbps; V3 $1.83M / 1,000 Gbps — QS preliminary). Kuiper $1.75M / 36 (Quilty bus); OneWeb ~$1.5M / 7.2 (Quilty); Lightspeed $11.6M / 40 (de-bundled scenario).
A Starlink launch delivers capacity ~10× cheaper per gigabit than any rivalCapacity a launch delivers vs what that launch costs
Show the numbers
A Starlink launch delivers capacity ~10× cheaper per gigabit than any rival
Gbps delivered / launch
Launch cost ($M)
Starlink V2 mini
2112
15
Kuiper
1620
105
Lightspeed
600
74
OneWeb
288
80
The dashed line is $100k per Gbps of capacity delivered. Above it you pay MORE than that for each Gbps a launch puts up; below it, less. OneWeb and Lightspeed sit above (dearer); Kuiper is below; Starlink is far below at ~$7k/Gbps — and flies it ~122× a year while the others are stalled, finished, or not started. (A Starship V3 flight, ~20,000 Gbps, is off this scale.)Gbps/launch = sats/flight × Gbps/sat: Starlink 22 V2 mini/F9, Kuiper 45/Vulcan, Lightspeed 15/F9 (Telesat, PRIMARY), OneWeb 40/F9. Launch cost as above.
LEO viability · head-to-head
Four LEO systems on the same denominators, each carrying its tier —disclosed fact, desk derivation, soft estimate, or honest hollow. The verdict publishes only when disclosed facts support it reliably; otherwise we withhold or suppress it rather than guessing. Move a slider to re-run the model.
PUBLISHABLE: every ancestor is disclosed or a transparent slider (no un-anchorable hole, no soft analyst stand-in). Front-loads the EUR 2bn at t0 (conservative). This is the go-forward continuation IRR, not a full-program IRR (Gen1 original build cost is undisclosed).
disclosed 8derived 15estimated 8hollow 0
Satellites
disc
Capacity (gross)
der
Capacity (sellable)
der
Cost / sat
der
Capex / sellable Gbps
der
Revenue
der
Replenish /yr
der
Assumptions · 8 sliders
Return is a go-forward IRR: the disclosed €2bn continuation capex against a revenue ramp (current LEO revenue × growth multiple × EBITDA margin). These sliders are that model's inputs.
PUBLISHED verdict, disclosed-anchored: Connectivity self-funds — adj. EBITDA exceeds segment capex by ~$1.2B in the quarter. No assumptions needed.
disclosed 14derived 9estimated 10hollow 1
Satellites
disc
Capacity (gross)
disc
Capacity (sellable)
der
Cost / sat
est
Capex / sellable Gbps
der
Revenue
disc
Replenish /yr
—
Assumptions · 6 sliders
The verdict is disclosed free cash flow — no model, no assumptions. These sliders drive only the illustrative IRR, which rests on an estimated cumulative capex (hence withheld).
COMPUTABLE but NOT verdict-publishable: the capex is now the disclosed $5.2B, but the return still hangs on the $4B 2032 revenue FORECAST × an assumed EBITDA margin — a forward forecast, not disclosed actuals. Per §9.1 the engine computes a number for the sandbox but the verdict gate stays red.
disclosed 18derived 12estimated 14hollow 4
Satellites
disc
Capacity (gross)
est
Capacity (sellable)
est
Cost / sat
est
Capex / sellable Gbps
est
Revenue
—
Replenish /yr
—
Assumptions · 8 sliders
IRR is modeled on the disclosed $5.2B program capex against Telesat's Aug-2026 $4B 2032 revenue forecast × an EBITDA margin. Verdict stays withheld — that revenue is still a forward forecast, not disclosed actuals.
Assumed mature EBITDA margin on 2032 revenue
40.0%90.0%
Opex fraction (0 — steady figure is already EBITDA)
0.0%30.0%
Years from now to the 2032 steady EBITDA
3 yr10 yr
DCF horizon
8 yr20 yr
Assumed sellable fraction of installed capacity
3.0%15.0%
Assumed replenishment spend within horizon
$0/yr$600M/yr
Falcon 9 price per launch (no Telesat figure — analyst-anchored)
Verdict SUPPRESSED (null) — but no longer from a data hole. With cost now anchored, the treadmill (~$3.1B/yr) exceeds net revenue at the default $3B/yr scenario, so the DCF has no positive root: at Quilty's cost, Kuiper does not close on any disclosed-scale revenue, and no IRR exists to show. It only turns positive once you slide revenue above break-even — a level Amazon has not disclosed. Move the revenue/opex/bus-cost sliders to find where it closes.
disclosed 11derived 14estimated 11hollow 0
Satellites
disc
Capacity (gross)
der
Capacity (sellable)
der
Cost / sat
der
Capex / sellable Gbps
der
Revenue
—
Replenish /yr
der
Assumptions · 7 sliders
Bus cost is now anchored to Quilty's analyst estimate (~$1.75M/sat, movable $0.5–2M), so cost/sat and the ~$3.1B/yr replenishment treadmill compute. The IRR verdict stays suppressed: at Quilty's cost the treadmill exceeds net revenue at any disclosed-scale scenario, so no IRR exists to publish. Slide revenue up to find where it closes — but that revenue is a scenario, not a fact, which is why no verdict is published.
Assumed design service life
3 yr7 yr
Assumed steady-state annual revenue
$500M/yr$12.0B/yr
Assumed opex as fraction of revenue
15.0%60.0%
Assumed years to steady-state revenue
2 yr12 yr
Assumed DCF horizon
10 yr25 yr
Assumed sellable fraction of gross capacity
2.0%30.0%
Gen1 satellite bus manufacturing cost (Quilty analyst estimate)
Coverage meter reads left→right by evidence strength: disclosed →derived → estimated →hollow. Money normalizes to USD with a movable FX rate (OneWeb carries a EUR→USD slider; the others report in USD). Sliders recompute the model live in your browser.
Orbital tracking
K2 Space · GRAVITAS · NORAD 68495 · launched 2026-03-30
Pathfinder 1
152days on orbit
VerdictNOMINAL — orbit-raise in progressmotion: RAISINGelement as of 2026-08-28 (2d ago)
Live position from latest element set
One full orbit (97.989 min), centred on the satellite's position now — dimmed behind it, solid ahead. The two ends do not join up: Earth turns beneath the orbit, so each pass runs about 24.6° west of the one before.
propagating…
Altitude history — 277 element sets over 136 days
Judged on apogee — orbit is eccentric (e=0.00474, 66.76 km between apogee and perigee), so mean altitude would report roughly half of any apogee-only raise.
Apogee climbing: +73.9 km over the 41 days since the 2026-07-18 turn at 621.98 km (+1.79 km/day) — electric orbit-raising is proceeding, the mission's success signal.
Orbit is eccentric: apogee 695.86 km × perigee 629.1 km, 66.76 km apart (e=0.00474). Perigee has been held at 628.81 km (spread 1.89 km, -0.025 km/day) for 23 days — a controlled parameter, not drift: drag lowers a perigee, it does not pin one. Apogee is moving +2.09 km/day against perigee's -0.22 km/day over the last 28 days, so mean altitude (+0.94 km/day) averages the two and is not the figure to judge this phase on.
Mean altitude662.48 km
Apo × Peri695.86 × 629.1 km
Period97.989 min
Inclination97.7691°
RegimeLEO
Orbit shape66.76 km band · e=0.00474
Apogee, current leg (41.3 d)+73.88 km · +1.79 km/day
Perigee held (23.2 d)628.81 km · ±0.94 km
Show the element sets
Epoch (UTC)
Mean alt (km)
Apoapsis (km)
Periapsis (km)
2026-08-28
662.48
695.86
629.1
2026-08-27
660.13
691.71
628.56
2026-08-25
660.13
691.72
628.54
2026-08-24
659.25
689.96
628.53
2026-08-22
657.15
684.82
629.48
2026-08-20
654.97
681.41
628.53
2026-08-19
653.64
678.01
629.27
2026-08-18
651.89
675.38
628.4
2026-08-17
649.91
669.96
629.85
2026-08-16
648.97
668.94
628.99
2026-08-15
647.36
666.12
628.6
2026-08-14
645.78
663
628.56
2026-08-13
643.17
657.7
628.64
2026-08-12
642.44
656.48
628.4
2026-08-11
641.73
654.78
628.68
2026-08-10
640.34
651.65
629.02
2026-08-09
638.98
649.08
628.87
2026-08-08
637.64
646.67
628.61
2026-08-08
637.06
645.15
628.97
2026-08-08
636.92
645.25
628.59
2026-08-07
636.41
643.51
629.31
2026-08-07
634.47
641.22
627.72
2026-08-07
634.6
641.62
627.58
2026-08-07
634.97
641.73
628.2
2026-08-06
635.33
641.82
628.85
2026-08-06
634.85
641.11
628.6
2026-08-06
634.43
640.04
628.83
2026-08-05
634.3
639.43
629.17
2026-08-05
635
639.79
630.21
2026-08-02
638.84
642.55
635.12
2026-08-01
640.11
644.09
636.13
2026-08-01
640.98
645.13
636.83
2026-07-31
641
645
636.99
2026-07-31
641
644.96
637.04
2026-07-31
641
644.66
637.34
2026-07-30
640.99
645.17
636.8
2026-07-30
640.99
645.16
636.81
2026-07-30
640.7
644.49
636.91
2026-07-29
640.83
644.32
637.35
2026-07-29
641.48
645.51
637.46
2026-07-29
641.5
645.38
637.62
2026-07-28
641.57
645.73
637.4
2026-07-28
641.87
646.51
637.23
2026-07-27
641.24
646.14
636.34
2026-07-27
641.3
646.23
636.37
2026-07-27
641.54
646.32
636.76
2026-07-27
641.52
646.8
636.25
2026-07-26
639.57
645.67
633.47
2026-07-26
639.37
643.87
634.88
2026-07-25
638.47
643.62
633.33
2026-07-25
638.08
643.7
632.45
2026-07-24
635.81
642.7
628.92
2026-07-24
635.7
643.14
628.25
2026-07-23
634.69
642.11
627.27
2026-07-23
634.87
642.3
627.43
2026-07-23
634.83
642.33
627.34
2026-07-23
634.74
642.28
627.19
2026-07-23
634.84
642.37
627.31
2026-07-22
634.62
643.59
625.66
2026-07-22
633.39
640.25
626.54
2026-07-22
633.48
640.67
626.29
2026-07-21
630.85
635.44
626.26
2026-07-21
629.46
635.36
623.57
2026-07-18
620.75
621.98
619.52
2026-07-17
620.81
622.02
619.6
2026-07-17
620.46
621.6
619.32
2026-07-17
620.38
621.49
619.27
2026-07-17
621.13
622.45
619.81
2026-07-17
621.17
622.62
619.72
2026-07-16
621.74
623.53
619.95
2026-07-16
621.33
623.08
619.58
2026-07-16
621.77
623.56
619.99
2026-07-16
621.78
623.74
619.81
2026-07-15
621.82
623.74
619.91
2026-07-15
622.2
624.28
620.12
2026-07-15
621.95
624.17
619.73
2026-07-15
621.9
624.1
619.7
2026-07-15
622.37
624.41
620.32
2026-07-14
622.75
624.61
620.9
2026-07-14
622.75
624.61
620.89
2026-07-07
627.15
628.68
625.62
2026-07-07
627.15
628.68
625.62
2026-07-07
627.16
628.78
625.53
2026-07-07
627.15
628.63
625.67
2026-07-07
627.15
628.63
625.67
2026-07-06
627.17
628.5
625.84
2026-07-06
627.17
628.5
625.84
2026-07-06
627.17
628.51
625.82
2026-07-05
627.2
628.76
625.64
2026-07-05
627.2
628.76
625.64
2026-07-05
627.2
628.77
625.63
2026-07-04
627.25
628.9
625.59
2026-07-04
627.14
628.84
625.45
2026-07-04
627.14
628.84
625.45
2026-07-03
627.29
629.04
625.54
2026-07-03
627.2
628.83
625.58
2026-07-02
627.2
629.01
625.39
2026-07-02
627.12
628.9
625.34
2026-07-02
627.32
629.06
625.58
2026-07-01
627.18
629.06
625.31
2026-07-01
627.19
628.98
625.39
2026-07-01
627.14
628.9
625.37
2026-07-01
627.37
629.11
625.62
2026-07-01
627.32
629.1
625.54
2026-06-30
627.24
629.25
625.23
2026-06-30
627.33
629.19
625.48
2026-06-30
628.96
630.93
626.98
2026-06-29
626.66
628.32
624.99
2026-06-28
629.62
632.15
627.1
2026-06-28
629.63
632.52
626.74
2026-06-28
631.35
633.51
629.18
2026-06-28
631.78
634.3
629.26
2026-06-27
632.6
637.29
627.9
2026-06-27
632.93
634.08
631.77
2026-06-27
638.08
640.4
635.76
2026-06-27
638.31
640.55
636.07
2026-06-27
638.26
640.58
635.94
2026-06-26
638.12
640.58
635.65
2026-06-26
637.26
644.48
630.04
2026-06-26
641.28
643.66
638.91
2026-06-26
641.45
643.78
639.13
2026-06-26
641.4
643.76
639.05
2026-06-25
641.4
643.98
638.82
2026-06-25
641.44
644
638.88
2026-06-25
643.25
645.73
640.77
2026-06-25
643.4
645.73
641.08
2026-06-25
643.4
645.66
641.14
2026-06-24
646.07
648.44
643.7
2026-06-24
646.07
648.44
643.7
2026-06-23
646.03
648.53
643.53
2026-06-22
648.27
651.1
645.43
2026-06-16
675.28
677.94
672.61
2026-06-16
675.28
677.94
672.61
2026-06-15
675.32
678.03
672.61
2026-06-15
675.32
678
672.64
2026-06-15
675.27
677.93
672.62
2026-06-15
675.49
678.12
672.87
2026-06-15
675.44
678.08
672.8
2026-06-14
675.33
678.09
672.58
2026-06-14
675.44
678.23
672.64
2026-06-14
675.34
678.1
672.57
2026-06-14
675.29
678.02
672.56
2026-06-14
675.51
678.17
672.84
2026-06-14
675.46
678.15
672.77
2026-06-13
675.35
678.15
672.55
2026-06-13
675.45
678.27
672.62
2026-06-13
675.35
678.16
672.54
2026-06-13
675.31
678.1
672.52
2026-06-13
675.53
678.27
672.79
2026-06-12
675.47
678.32
672.62
2026-06-12
675.53
678.1
672.96
2026-06-11
677.9
680.77
675.04
2026-06-11
678
680.9
675.11
2026-06-11
678.05
680.93
675.17
2026-06-11
676.34
679.06
673.63
2026-06-06
696.6
699.44
693.75
2026-06-06
696.6
699.45
693.75
2026-06-05
696.6
699.46
693.74
2026-06-05
696.6
699.46
693.74
2026-06-05
696.6
699.47
693.73
2026-06-05
696.6
699.48
693.72
2026-06-05
696.6
699.48
693.72
2026-06-03
696.6
699.51
693.7
2026-06-03
696.6
699.51
693.7
2026-06-03
696.61
699.52
693.69
2026-06-03
696.61
699.52
693.69
2026-06-02
696.61
699.54
693.68
2026-06-02
696.61
699.55
693.67
2026-06-01
696.61
699.56
693.66
2026-06-01
696.61
699.57
693.65
2026-05-29
694.86
697.63
692.1
2026-05-29
694.86
697.63
692.1
2026-05-29
694.86
697.63
692.1
2026-05-28
694.87
697.63
692.1
2026-05-28
694.87
697.64
692.1
2026-05-28
694.87
697.64
692.09
2026-05-28
694.87
697.65
692.09
2026-05-28
694.87
697.65
692.09
2026-05-27
694.87
697.64
692.09
2026-05-27
694.87
697.64
692.1
2026-05-27
694.87
697.65
692.09
2026-05-27
694.87
697.64
692.1
2026-05-27
694.87
697.64
692.1
2026-05-26
694.87
697.64
692.1
2026-05-26
694.87
697.63
692.11
2026-05-26
694.87
697.63
692.11
2026-05-25
694.75
697.67
691.83
2026-05-25
694.71
697.61
691.8
2026-05-25
694.88
697.71
692.04
2026-05-24
694.78
697.64
691.91
2026-05-24
694.87
697.64
692.11
2026-05-23
694.87
697.65
692.1
2026-05-23
694.73
697.55
691.9
2026-05-23
694.95
697.74
692.15
2026-05-22
691.49
694.42
688.56
2026-05-22
685.37
688.35
682.4
2026-05-22
685.55
688.45
682.65
2026-05-21
685.39
688.27
682.52
2026-05-21
685.49
688.37
682.61
2026-05-21
685.47
688.37
682.57
2026-05-21
685.39
688.3
682.48
2026-05-21
685.56
688.44
682.68
2026-05-20
685.38
688.42
682.35
2026-05-20
680.89
683.82
677.96
2026-05-20
680.84
683.76
677.92
2026-05-20
681.06
683.93
678.19
2026-05-20
681.01
683.86
678.15
2026-05-19
682.14
684.93
679.35
2026-05-19
660.77
663.65
657.89
2026-05-18
660.81
663.72
657.9
2026-05-18
660.92
663.83
658
2026-05-18
660.76
663.72
657.81
2026-05-18
660.93
663.82
658.04
2026-05-17
660.83
663.74
657.93
2026-05-17
660.93
663.87
657.99
2026-05-17
660.83
663.82
657.84
2026-05-17
660.79
663.77
657.8
2026-05-17
660.96
663.87
658.05
2026-05-16
660.86
663.75
657.97
2026-05-16
660.95
663.85
658.05
2026-05-16
660.85
663.79
657.91
2026-05-16
660.81
663.75
657.87
2026-05-16
661.03
663.92
658.15
2026-05-13
654.71
656.71
652.7
2026-05-13
652.28
654.92
649.65
2026-05-13
651.82
654.3
649.34
2026-05-12
650.75
653.89
647.61
2026-05-12
650.85
653.98
647.71
2026-05-12
650.72
653.93
647.52
2026-05-12
650.9
654.1
647.71
2026-05-12
650.85
653.99
647.7
2026-05-11
650.83
653.82
647.84
2026-05-11
650.83
653.83
647.83
2026-05-11
650.29
658.97
641.61
2026-05-09
638.96
641.91
636
2026-05-08
638.96
641.9
636.02
2026-05-08
638.96
641.89
636.03
2026-05-07
638.96
641.85
636.06
2026-05-07
638.96
641.85
636.07
2026-05-07
638.96
641.84
636.08
2026-05-07
638.96
641.83
636.09
2026-05-06
638.96
641.82
636.1
2026-05-06
638.96
641.82
636.1
2026-05-06
638.96
641.81
636.11
2026-05-06
638.96
641.8
636.13
2026-05-06
638.96
641.79
636.13
2026-05-05
638.96
641.76
636.17
2026-05-05
638.96
641.76
636.17
2026-05-05
638.97
641.71
636.22
2026-05-04
638.97
641.7
636.24
2026-05-04
638.97
641.67
636.26
2026-05-03
638.99
641.76
636.22
2026-05-03
638.99
641.76
636.22
2026-05-03
638.99
641.75
636.23
2026-05-03
638.99
641.73
636.26
2026-05-03
638.99
641.73
636.26
2026-05-03
638.99
641.7
636.28
2026-05-02
639
641.65
636.34
2026-05-02
639
641.65
636.34
2026-05-02
639
641.65
636.34
2026-05-02
639
641.64
636.36
2026-05-02
639
641.62
636.37
2026-05-02
639
641.61
636.39
2026-05-01
639
641.59
636.41
2026-05-01
639
641.59
636.41
2026-04-30
639
641.55
636.46
2026-04-28
639.02
641.42
636.61
2026-04-28
639.02
641.42
636.61
2026-04-27
639.02
641.39
636.65
2026-04-20
616.12
617.26
614.97
2026-04-20
616.12
617.26
614.97
2026-04-19
602.39
605.63
599.15
2026-04-17
600.98
602.61
599.36
2026-04-17
600.88
602.42
599.34
2026-04-16
600.88
602.37
599.4
2026-04-16
600.88
602.36
599.41
2026-04-13
600.89
602.21
599.57
Source: NORAD two-line element sets, propagated with the desk's tracking tool —tracking/gravitas-68495.jsonl. 277 element sets, 2026-04-13 → 2026-08-28; latest epoch 2026-08-28.
Method: altitudes are derived from the orbital elements at each epoch, not measured directly; between element sets the path is interpolated, so short-term wobble can be aliasing rather than real manoeuvres. The verdict is judged on the series named above the chart.