The evidence base behind lightspeed.json. Reconstructed by reading the Telesat and MDA earnings-call transcripts chronologically (not a figure list), so every number in the fixture traces to a dated primary quote and the funded-vs-notional line is explicit. Where the operator cites a figure I cannot source, it is flagged rather than adopted.
Last reconstructed: 2026-08-12 · Sources: Telesat + MDA earnings transcripts in inbox/, plus the SpaceIntelReport (de Selding) account of the Aug-4-2026 Telesat investor call.
1. Satellite-count evolution — reconciled
Satellite-count ladder — reconciledsatsTwo arithmetics, one answer: 156+69 = 225 and 198+27 = 225
96 — min global service
96 sats
156 — financed base
156 sats
198 — MDA build scope
198 sats
225 — now fully financed
225 sats
All 225 are Mil-Ka-capable via a fleet-wide software-defined AURORA re-planas of 2026-08-07Telesat + MDA calls; SpaceIntelReport (MGMT)
Count
Meaning
Primary source
198
MDA build scope
SIR 2026-08-04: "MDA had started work on 198 Lightspeed satellites despite the fact that Telesat had only financed 156 of them."
156
financed base (since Sept 2024)
Telesat 2025-11-04 (CEO): "we're starting with 156 satellites. We expect those will be in orbit by the end of 2027."
96
minimum for global commercial service
Telesat 2026-03-17 (CEO): "for us to do full global coverage, that's about 96 satellites."
225
now fully financed
MDA 2026-08-07 (CEO): "add 27 MDA AURORA satellites on top of the previously announced 198 … total fully funded constellation to 225." · SIR: "69 additional … satellites … fully financed" (156 + 69 = 225).
Two arithmetics, one answer: 198 in-build +27 (MDA order) = 225; 156 financed +69 (ESC-P/DIA) = 225. Both reconcile.
2. Military Ka — the fleet-wide fact (previously flattened)
This is the nuance the first pass dropped: Mil-Ka is not a payload on the new satellites only.
Mil-Ka goes on the whole fleet — all 225 satellites — not just the new ones.
2026-03-17MGMT
Telesat CEO: adding Mil-Ka "to our initial 156 Lightspeed satellites, and we fully expect additional satellites … will also have Mil-Ka capability."
2026-03-17MGMT · Q&A
"the quantum of Mil-Ka capacity we're bringing to market by proliferating it across all of our satellites is a massive increase."
mechanismDERIVED
500 MHz (25% of total spectrum) replaces the same commercial Ka on the user link only; a software-defined AURORA re-plan, not a hardware retrofit — AURORA switches commercial↔military "by adding power over given areas."
costMGMT
"around USD 25 million … less than 0.5% of the total program cost for the first 156."
→ maps to lightspeed.json · milKaFleetwide = true · all 225 Mil-Ka-capable
The CAD $474M MDA increase is a bundle — but netting out the $25M software re-plan turns it into a ~$11.6M/sat build proxy that tallies with the program.
2026-08-07MGMT
The increase (CAD $474M ≈ US$337.6M) covers the fleet-wide Mil-Ka implementation + the 27 new AURORA satellites + long-lead items.
softwareMGMT
The Mil-Ka conversion is software — a re-plan capped at ~US$25M fleet-wide (<0.5% of the 156-sat program), not hardware.
de-bundleDERIVED
($337.6M − $25M) ÷ 27 ≈ $11.6M/sat — an upper bound: long-lead is still bundled in, and this is the marginal add-on order, not the fleet average.
tallyDERIVED
At $11.6M the 225-sat fleet is ~$2.6B ≈ 50% of the $5.2B program — launch, ground and contingency ≈ the rest. The old ~$3.5M operator figure implied a 15% satellite share, too low: it was a bus-only artifact, now replaced.
cautionFLAG
Raw $474M ÷ 27 is still wrong — the contract is not scoped per-sat. The $11.6M proxy holds only after the software cost is removed, and stays a bound, not a disclosed price.
Where the $5.2B program goes$BOnly the launch count is hard-sourced; ground is the residual plug
Space segment · 225 × $11.6M
$2.6B
Launch · 15 × ~$70M
$1.05B
Ground · residual
$1.05B
Contingency
$0.5B
Ground absorbs all error in the space and launch estimates — a plug, not a measured figureas of 2026-08-13Launch count Telesat 2026-08-13 (PRIMARY); Falcon 9 price Farrar (ANALYST)
The $5.2B splits ~50 / 20 / 20 / 10 — space / launch / ground / contingency — but only the launch count is hard-sourced.
launchesMGMT
Telesat CEO (2026-08-13): "to launch the 225 satellites, we estimate we need 15 rockets. We already have 14 under contract with SpaceX." All 225 launched by end-2028.
spaceDERIVED
225 × the ~$11.6M build proxy ≈ $2.6B (~50%) — the only bucket with a cost basis, and itself an upper bound.
launchANALYST
15 × Falcon 9 at ~$70M (Farrar; no Telesat-disclosed price) ≈ $1.05B (~20%). The price is the soft lever — a slider.
groundDERIVED
Residual ≈ $1.05B (~20%) — a plug that absorbs all error in the space and launch estimates. Corroborated only in kind ("8-plus teleports … under development"), never in dollars.
Program capex escalation$BThe DIA/ESC-P award lifted total program cost to $5.2B
$5.2B incl. $500M contingency (was $300M); $2B spent as of Mar 31; backlog >$4Bas of 2026-08-04Telesat calls; SpaceIntelReport (de Selding)
2032 revenue forecast — militarization
Military46% — was 15%
Commercial54%
Total 2032 forecast $4B (was >$3B); DIA service contract $1.9B underwrites the shiftas of 2026-08-04Telesat Aug-4 call, per SpaceIntelReport
Date
Event
Primary quote
Sept 2024
Full funding closed (the 156-sat base)
Telesat 2024-11-14 (CEO): "we closed the funding for Lightspeed … now that the program is fully funded"; CFO: "$2.54 billion available under our funding agreements with the government of Canada and Quebec."
2025 FY
Capex $708M (below $900M–1.1B guide; MDA milestone slipped to 2026); LEO EBITDA loss $67M
Telesat 2026-03-17 (CFO)
Mar 2026
Still fully funded to global service
Telesat 2026-03-17 (CFO): "$337 million in cash … $1.82 billion available under our Telesat Lightspeed financing and USD 325 million … vendor financing is expected to be sufficient to fully fund … until it achieved global commercial service."
May 2026
ESC-P finalization pending; projections to be updated on signing
Telesat 2026-05-05 (CEO)
Aug 4 2026
ESC-P/DIA award
SIR, citing Telesat Aug-4 call: DIA service contract $1.9B ($1.5B 2026–28, then $400M/yr to 2043); total program capex → $5.2B (incl $500M contingency, up from $3.8B/$300M); $2B spent as of Mar 31; backlog >$4B (ESC-P +$3.3B); 2032 revenue forecast $4B, 46% military (was >$3B / 15%).
4. Funded vs notional — do not conflate
The funded / contracted program is 225 Ka-band satellites (156 + 69 ESC-P), all Mil-Ka-capable.
fundedHARD
225 Ka-band satellites (156 + 69 ESC-P), all Mil-Ka-capable; first launch late 2026; global commercial service April 2028.
launchesSIR
SpaceX Falcon 9 launches — "all but one … booked" (SIR).
A further ~70 X-/UHF-band satellites are notional — no capex committed.
notionalNOTIONAL
Goldberg (per SIR): "notional. No capex committed so far," targeted to start service 2032, orbit unspecified.
A separate MEO UHF/X-band constellation is notional and out of this LEO model's scope.
notionalNOTIONAL
DIA statement: MDA prime, Telesat subcontractor — "negotiations … underway," details being finalized. This is the MEO leg of ESC-P and is out of this LEO model's scope.
The fixture models only the funded 225-satellite Ka-band program.
5. Currency discipline
Figures are held in their native denomination — CAD and USD kept distinct.
CADHARD
Telesat financials; government funding ($2.54B Canada+Quebec); the MDA contract increase (CAD $474M ≈ US$337.6M, per MDA/SIR).
USDHARD
vendor financing ($325M); the program-cost lineage ($3.5B → $3.8B → $5.2B); the 2032 revenue forecast ($4B, per SIR).
Cross-currency normalization is deferred, so the fixture's IRR is illustrative and its verdict stays withheld.
cross-currencyDERIVED
Cross-currency normalization is deferred, which — with the forward revenue being a forecast — is why the fixture's IRR is illustrative and its verdict stays withheld.
6. Capacity — a desk scenario over a disclosed hole
Telesat discloses no throughput — only spectrum. So capacity here runs in a separate estimate lane: a desk figure held with reasonable confidence, kept strictly apart from the disclosed hole, which stays null.
Installed vs sellable capacity — scenarioGbps40 Gbps/sat × 225 = 9 Tbps installed; only ~5% is sellable
Installed (gross)
9,000
Sellable @5%
450
Sellable @10%
900
A scenario, not a disclosure. The disclosed capacity claim stays null.as of 2026-08Desk estimate (INBOX) — Telesat discloses no throughput
Telesat discloses no throughput, so capacity is a desk scenario (~40 Gbps/sat) held apart from the disclosed hole.
disclosedFLAG
Telesat states only spectrum — 2 GHz user-link, 500 MHz Mil-Ka — and no Gbps/Tbps in any transcript. The disclosed capacity stays null / un-anchorable.