The desk holds at most ten of these — one per structural question that could move SES. Each commits to a falsifiable thesis and grows its own evidence base over time. Reversed calls stay on the record.
IRIS²/SpaceRISE proceeds as the EU's flagship non-Musk sovereign multi-orbit constellation, with SES confirmed staying inside the consortium on signed terms rather than exiting.
China is building three concurrent LEO mega-constellations — Guowang (12,992-sat ITU filing), Qianfan/Spacesail, and Honghu-3 (LandSpace-operated, ~1,200 satellites by end-2027, ~5,000 by end-2030)…
SpaceX's satcom pricing is not cost-anchored and cannot be beaten on price by any competitor modeling Starlink as a standalone business.
Global launch supply — not satellite manufacturing, not spectrum — is the binding constraint on every non-SpaceX constellation through ~2028, on two distinct axes: (1) cadence — SpaceX's own…
Commercial EO/SAR is professionalizing from venture-funded capacity-building into an institutionalized government-procurement asset class, with capital and political momentum still outrunning…
The sector's dominant business-model migration is a convergence on vertically integrated, end-to-end service provision — the SpaceX template, minus (sometimes plus) launch.
The 2 GHz MSS band is the decisive European battleground for D2D, contested on two axes that don't fully align: political (SpaceConnect's US-capital lobbying bloc, backed by an implicit US…
The upper C-band proceeding is primarily a balance-sheet event for SES (clearing costs vs incentive-payment proceeds vs transponder capacity loss), and only secondarily a D2D fight.
The satellite industry is mid-wave in a consolidation cycle with two distinct logics that look similar (M&A) but point opposite directions strategically: SCALE plays (same-layer roll-ups chasing…
AST SpaceMobile is executing a well-capitalized, technically real direct-to-device build-out — not vaporware — but its commercial ramp is lumpier than the launch-cadence story implies, and any…
Amazon Leo is the only Western LEO broadband program besides Starlink with the balance-sheet depth to build a full first-generation constellation, but its binding constraint is launch supply, not…
Sovereign-LEO ambition in the Indo-Pacific and Gulf has moved from rhetoric to state-adopted budgets within a single month across three independent governments (India, Japan, Korea), making…
Accent marks the most serious live thread each dossier informs —existential,positioning,opportunistic. Order is freshest revision first.