SATCOM INTELSatellite & space-infrastructure intelligence, read through SESBrief 2026-08-29 · 15:14 UTC

THE CMD WAR ROOM · IR / FINANCE

The market holds eight doubts.
SES has 101 days.

Capital Markets Day, Luxembourg, 9 December 2026. This room tracks the doubts that set the share price, who keeps raising them, and how the market has traded the answers — all from the public record.

19 weeks announcement → CMD · 4 spent · 1 of 8 doubts currently worsening

01 · THE MARKET, THIS MONTH

19 of 25 tracked space stocks rose this month. SES fell 28% — last of the table.

Share-price change over the last month (21 trading days), one bar per company across the desk's full tracked universe, best to worst. Colour is the company's segment — Operators · Earth observation · Launch & exploration · Primes & suppliers.

-20%0+20%+40%+60%Satellogic+60.4%Intuitive Machines+42.1%Sidus Space+38.7%Spire Global+32.8%Telesat+32.8%SpaceX+25.2%Firefly Aerospace+24.2%Virgin Galactic+22.4%BlackSky+20.1%AST SpaceMobile+15.9%Rocket Lab+15.2%Planet+8.7%Iridium+7.4%Comtech+5.4%Globalstar+4.4%Karman+4.0%Viasat+3.6%EchoStar+3.1%Momentus+2.6%MDA Space-0.4%Gilat-1.0%Eutelsat-10.6%L3Harris-11.9%OHB-18.0%SES-27.5%

Source: Mirrored daily closes (data/tickers.json universe) · as of 2026-08-27

Note: 1 tracked names are not shown yet — a fresh listing or a new addition needs a month of mirrored history before its bar appears. Local-currency price change; dividends excluded.

Two more facts behind that bar

SES trades on its own story, not the sector's

Each dot is a tracked company over the last 90 trading days. Right = it moves with the space sector; up = it moves with SES. So the direct peers we care about — Eutelsat, Viasat, Telesat — and SES itself are labelled; the rest of the industry is shown lighter. 1.00 = lockstep, 0 = unrelated.

000.50.511MOVES WITH THE SECTOR →MOVES WITH SES →AST SpaceMobile — sector .83, SES .15BlackSky — sector .80, SES .25Comtech — sector .26, SES .25EchoStar — sector .59, SES .05Firefly Aerospace — sector .81, SES .10Gilat — sector .60, SES .28Globalstar — sector .46, SES .08Intuitive Machines — sector .75, SES .17Iridium — sector .72, SES .14Karman — sector .48, SES .18L3Harris — sector .19, SES .44MDA Space — sector .75, SES .27Momentus — sector .56, SES .18OHB — sector .27, SES .27Planet — sector .83, SES .28Rocket Lab — sector .82, SES .17Satellogic — sector .76, SES .08Sidus Space — sector .75, SES .10Spire Global — sector .80, SES .08Virgin Galactic — sector .39, SES .08Eutelsat — sector .49, SES .63EutelsatSES — sector .27, SES 1.00SES (.27 vs sector)Telesat — sector .69, SES .15TelesatViasat — sector .73, SES .21Viasat

SES sits top-left — high with itself, lowest with the sector at .27, so the market prices it on its own catalysts. The one name that moves with SES is Eutelsat (.63). That is why the CMD carries weight: the story is the price driver.

Some stocks trade hard on the earnings call. SES is one of them.

Every management team speaks positive, so the tone of the answers alone tells you little. Each row is one company; each dot is one earnings call, placed by how the stock moved the next day after the sector's move is removed. We split each company's calls into its better half and its more-hedged half — above or below that company's own median answer tone:better callmore hedged. Rows run widest-swinging first; SES is in fuchsia.

-20%-10%0+10%+20%Eutelsat4 calls · 31pp swingEutelsat · Feb 25 — more hedged call, -19.6% vs the sectorEutelsat · Aug 26 — better call, -9.1% vs the sectorEutelsat · Feb 26 — more hedged call, +2.3% vs the sectorEutelsat · Aug 25 — better call, +11.1% vs the sectorTelesat8 calls · 29pp swingTelesat · Aug 26 — better call, -13.4% vs the sectorTelesat · Nov 25 — better call, -5.9% vs the sectorTelesat · May 26 — better call, -0.3% vs the sectorTelesat · May 25 — better call, +1.2% vs the sectorTelesat · Mar 25 — more hedged call, +2.3% vs the sectorTelesat · Aug 25 — more hedged call, +4.5% vs the sectorTelesat · Nov 24 — more hedged call, +4.6% vs the sectorTelesat · Mar 26 — more hedged call, +15.9% vs the sectorSES8 calls · 29pp swingSES · Jul 26 — more hedged call, -21.0% vs the sectorSES · Nov 25 — more hedged call, -12.3% vs the sectorSES · Nov 24 — more hedged call, -0.4% vs the sectorSES · Jul 25 — better call, +1.3% vs the sectorSES · Mar 26 — better call, +1.5% vs the sectorSES · Feb 25 — better call, +4.7% vs the sectorSES · Apr 25 — more hedged call, +5.4% vs the sectorSES · May 26 — better call, +7.6% vs the sectorAST SpaceMobile7 calls · 13pp swingAST SpaceMobile · Aug 26 — better call, -3.9% vs the sectorAST SpaceMobile · Aug 25 — more hedged call, -2.3% vs the sectorAST SpaceMobile · Nov 25 — better call, -1.4% vs the sectorAST SpaceMobile · May 25 — more hedged call, +4.5% vs the sectorAST SpaceMobile · Mar 26 — better call, +5.2% vs the sectorAST SpaceMobile · May 26 — more hedged call, +6.2% vs the sectorAST SpaceMobile · Mar 25 — better call, +8.6% vs the sectorRocket Lab8 calls · 9pp swingRocket Lab · Feb 25 — more hedged call, -4.9% vs the sectorRocket Lab · Aug 26 — better call, -2.8% vs the sectorRocket Lab · May 26 — more hedged call, -2.5% vs the sectorRocket Lab · Nov 25 — better call, -0.1% vs the sectorRocket Lab · May 25 — better call, +1.1% vs the sectorRocket Lab · Feb 26 — more hedged call, +2.2% vs the sectorRocket Lab · Nov 24 — more hedged call, +2.7% vs the sectorRocket Lab · Aug 25 — better call, +3.9% vs the sectorViasat7 calls · 9pp swingViasat · Nov 24 — more hedged call, -4.9% vs the sectorViasat · Aug 26 — better call, -1.2% vs the sectorViasat · May 26 — better call, -0.6% vs the sectorViasat · Feb 26 — better call, +0.0% vs the sectorViasat · Nov 25 — more hedged call, +0.6% vs the sectorViasat · Feb 25 — better call, +2.4% vs the sectorViasat · Aug 25 — more hedged call, +3.8% vs the sectorJul 26: -21%, a hedged callNEXT-DAY MOVE vs THE SECTOR →

SES's stock swings across a 29-point range on its own calls — from -21% to +7.6% versus the sector in one day. Its more-hedged calls averaged -7.1%; its better calls averaged +3.8%. The growth names — Rocket Lab, Viasat, AST — barely move on earnings at all. The market listens hardest to SES, and hardest of all when the message is hedged.

Show the calls
CompanyCallAnswer toneHalfNext-day vs sector
EutelsatFeb 250.05hedged-19.6%
EutelsatAug 260.15better-9.1%
EutelsatFeb 260.13hedged+2.3%
EutelsatAug 250.15better+11.1%
TelesatAug 260.25better-13.4%
TelesatNov 250.20better-5.9%
TelesatMay 260.26better-0.3%
TelesatMay 250.20better+1.2%
TelesatMar 250.12hedged+2.3%
TelesatAug 250.17hedged+4.5%
TelesatNov 240.13hedged+4.6%
TelesatMar 260.19hedged+15.9%
SESJul 260.14hedged-21.0%
SESNov 250.11hedged-12.3%
SESNov 240.15hedged-0.4%
SESJul 250.20better+1.3%
SESMar 260.22better+1.5%
SESFeb 250.18better+4.7%
SESApr 250.13hedged+5.4%
SESMay 260.25better+7.6%
AST SpaceMobileAug 260.23better-3.9%
AST SpaceMobileAug 250.12hedged-2.3%
AST SpaceMobileNov 250.22better-1.4%
AST SpaceMobileMay 250.18hedged+4.5%
AST SpaceMobileMar 260.25better+5.2%
AST SpaceMobileMay 260.12hedged+6.2%
AST SpaceMobileMar 250.24better+8.6%
Rocket LabFeb 250.07hedged-4.9%
Rocket LabAug 260.16better-2.8%
Rocket LabMay 260.12hedged-2.5%
Rocket LabNov 250.19better-0.1%
Rocket LabMay 250.19better+1.1%
Rocket LabFeb 260.12hedged+2.2%
Rocket LabNov 240.14hedged+2.7%
Rocket LabAug 250.19better+3.9%
ViasatNov 240.10hedged-4.9%
ViasatAug 260.18better-1.2%
ViasatMay 260.22better-0.6%
ViasatFeb 260.20better+0.0%
ViasatNov 250.15hedged+0.6%
ViasatFeb 250.17better+2.4%
ViasatAug 250.14hedged+3.8%

Source: Mirrored daily closes; correlation is the Pearson r of daily log returns (90 trading days, equal-weight ex-self index, as of 2026-08-29). The reaction chart joins per-call next-day abnormal returns from data/qa/reaction.jsonl to answer tone in data/qa/tone.jsonl (ProsusAI/finbert), for companies with at least four scored calls.

Note: Left chart — direct peers are the comparable GEO/FSS operators (Eutelsat, Viasat, Telesat); the wider industry is shown lighter, and correlation needs 60 overlapping trading days, so a freshly listed name (e.g. SpaceX, listed June 2026) joins once it qualifies. Right chart — abnormal return removes the sector's move for the day; "better" and "hedged" split each company's calls at its own median answer tone, not against any absolute line. Both charts grow as the weekly model rescoring adds calls.

02 · THE RISK BOARD

Eight doubts, worst first

Each card is one standing doubt about SES.▲ BUILDING = the doubt is getting worse ·→ STATIC = no movement ·▼ EASING = the public record is resolving it. The fuchsia bar is how often the sell side asks about it across the desk's 68-call corpus.

LEVERAGEDeleveraging path to the ≤3.0x target

▲ BUILDING

combined like-for-like adjusted net debt / adjusted EBITDA 4.4x at 2026-06-30, up from 4.1x prior quarter (CFO: mainly cash-flow timing and lower 12-month EBITDA); policy restated: C-band proceeds first to deleveraging

4.4x now · target ≤3.0x — returns unlock at the target
ASKED 27× · 14 FIRMS

Who asks SES: Ben Rickett ×2 · Nicholas Michael Edward Dempsey ×2 — profiles in §03

Closes when: net-debt/EBITDA prints trending to ≤3.0x; C-band proceeds applied per stated policy (deleveraging first)

2026-07-30 · VERIFIED 2026-08-24

CAPEXCapex requirements of the multi-orbit roadmap

→ STATIC

2026 guidance: ~€700M total capex excluding C-band, plus ~€100-150M C-band capex stated as "fully reimbursable over time" and not affecting long-term capital allocation

ASKED 43× · 19 FIRMS

Who asks SES: Aleksander Peterc ×1 · Roshan Vijay Ranjit ×1 — profiles in §03

Closes when: a medium-term capex envelope disclosed (CMD is the stated venue for the financial outlook)

2026-07-30 · VERIFIED 2026-08-24

MEOSPHEREmeoSphere delivery

→ STATIC

H1 2026 call, program update slide: software-defined payloads at the architecture's heart; in-house payload manufacture and AIT investment for meoSphere and IRIS²

ASKED 10× · 6 FIRMS

Who asks SES: Aleksander Peterc ×2 · Nicholas Michael Edward Dempsey ×2 — profiles in §03

Closes when: milestone schedule, unit economics (cost-per-bit, capex efficiency, cycle time) quantified publicly — CMD is the stated venue for the deeper profile

2026-07-30 · VERIFIED 2026-08-24

RETURNSShareholder returns

→ STATIC

H1 2026 call: at ≤3.0x, "at least the majority of future exceptional cash flows will be prioritized for shareholder returns" per the stated capital-allocation framework; dividend increase review signaled at ≤3.0x

ASKED 4× · 4 FIRMS

Who asks SES: Akin Dasani ×1 — profiles in §03

Closes when: quantified policy at/below 3.0x leverage (amounts, instruments, timing)

2026-07-30 · VERIFIED 2026-08-24

GROWTHVisibility of medium-term growth

▼ EASING

FY-2026 outlook reiterated at H1 2026 (stronger H2 revenue profile, cost discipline); CMD date and scope announced on the same call; H1 2026 like-for-like segment growth now in the store (data/series/financials.jsonl): Mobility +5.1%, Government +1.9%, Networks -1.5% LFL yoy (reported growth rates instead reflect the Intelsat consolidation, not organic performance)

ASKED 82× · 27 FIRMS

Who asks SES: Aleksander Peterc ×6 · Roshan Vijay Ranjit ×4 — profiles in §03

Closes when: a multi-year financial outlook with segment growth drivers — CMD 2026-12-09 announced as the venue

2026-07-30 · VERIFIED 2026-08-24

INTEGRATIONExecution of the Intelsat integration

▼ EASING

H1 2026 call reports "continued progress on integration and synergy capture"; high double-digit yoy declines in non-staff OpEx cited; synergy data promised at CMD/FY-2026 results

ASKED 54× · 22 FIRMS

Who asks SES: Roshan Vijay Ranjit ×6 · Aleksander Peterc ×3 — profiles in §03

Closes when: synergy run-rate and delivery figures disclosed (CEO: accomplishment data at FY-2026 results / CMD)

2026-07-30 · VERIFIED 2026-08-24

IRIS²IRIS² execution

▼ EASING

Rendez-Vous 1 concluded 2026-08-07: SpaceRISE consortium now committed to build, contracts moving to prime subcontractors (Airbus, Thales Alenia Space, OHB, Aerospacelab per Eutelsat's same-day call); SES's up-to-€1.35B commitment confirmed at RDV1 close, ending the "final-stage negotiation" uncertainty flagged on SES's own 2026-07-30 call

ASKED 26× · 10 FIRMS

Who asks SES: Nicholas Michael Edward Dempsey ×3 · Paul Sidney ×3 — profiles in §03

Closes when: milestone delivery against the public commitment structure (SES €1.35B of the 4-party €4.84B — data/series/funding.jsonl)

2026-08-07 · VERIFIED 2026-08-24

C-BANDC-band monetization

▼ EASING

gross incentive of ~$5.6B to SES issuer-confirmed 2026-07-27, contingent on clearing within transition deadlines; order terms fixed (adopted 2026-07-22, effective 2026-09-29); regulatory state tracked on the docket board (dockets.md), not re-researched here

ASKED 18× · 10 FIRMS

Who asks SES: Aleksander Peterc ×4 · Nicholas Michael Edward Dempsey ×2 — profiles in §03

Closes when: on-schedule clearing against FCC 26-46's deadlines; Transition Plan filing due 2026-11-05; disbursement 2030/2031

2026-07-27 · VERIFIED 2026-08-24

Source: ir-ledger.md (weekly ir-watch routine); ask-counts from data/qa/questions.jsonl

Note: Direction is the desk's read of the public record only. This board records what the market doubts — never what SES should announce.

03 · WHO WILL ASK

Who asks these questions — and how they ask them

Every analyst with five or more SES question turns across the eight-call corpus (2024–2026). The tags summarise the measurements below the name; the question-tone scale places the FinBERT tone of their questions fromprobing (skeptical framing) to constructive; the three stats readpersistence (turns per call), depth (average question length), and focus (share of their questions on their single most-asked theme). The meters are the same eight doubts as the board above — each bar is the share of the analyst's SES questions touching that doubt. Everything here measures question language on the public record, never the person; the sample size is on every card.

Aleksander Peterc · Bernstein

12 turns · 8 calls

PROBINGMULTI-PARTBROAD
probingconstructive-0.09
1.5 turns / call687 chars / question21% on guidance
LEVERAGE8%
CAPEX8%
RETURNS0%
GROWTH50%
MEOSPHERE17%
INTEGRATION25%
IRIS²8%
C-BAND33%

Also covers Eutelsat: question tone there -0.17 — a consistent house view.

“That's great. Can I just have a very quick follow-up on launches. We hear that SpaceX is retiring Falcon 9 in favor of Starship and will progressively retire it. What do…”

Paul Sidney · Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG

10 turns · 5 calls

CONSTRUCTIVEPERSISTENTBROAD
probingconstructive+0.12
2.0 turns / call501 chars / question19% on government
LEVERAGE0%
CAPEX10%
RETURNS0%
GROWTH40%
MEOSPHERE10%
INTEGRATION10%
IRIS²30%
C-BAND0%
“Just 2, please. Just going back to the first question we had on the call, the rebound in H2. I was just wondering, is this revenue already contracted? Or does it rely on…”

Roshan Vijay Ranjit · Deutsche Bank

9 turns · 7 calls

EVEN-TONEDMULTI-PARTBROAD
probingconstructive-0.02
1.3 turns / call859 chars / question14% on integration
LEVERAGE11%
CAPEX11%
RETURNS0%
GROWTH44%
MEOSPHERE22%
INTEGRATION67%
IRIS²11%
C-BAND22%
“I've got 2 questions, please. And it's just, I guess, going back to the operational performance and the terminal -- the ESA terminals. Adel, you mentioned in the press r…”

Nicholas Michael Edward Dempsey · Barclays

9 turns · 6 calls

EVEN-TONEDMULTI-PARTBROAD
probingconstructive+0.02
1.5 turns / call724 chars / question8% on IRIS²
LEVERAGE22%
CAPEX11%
RETURNS0%
GROWTH11%
MEOSPHERE22%
INTEGRATION22%
IRIS²33%
C-BAND22%
“So there's no -- you can't say if there's nothing else expected for the year or something else expected for the year...”

Ben Rickett · New Street Research

9 turns · 5 calls

PROBINGPERSISTENTBROAD
probingconstructive-0.04
1.8 turns / call422 chars / question17% on integration
LEVERAGE22%
CAPEX0%
RETURNS0%
GROWTH22%
MEOSPHERE0%
INTEGRATION33%
IRIS²11%
C-BAND11%

Also covers Eutelsat: question tone there +0.05.

“That's really helpful. And can I just check, in Q1, you have that sort of EUR 81 million one-off. There's nothing similar to that coming in, in H2? Well, we have this bi…”

Stéphane Beyazian · ODDO BHF

5 turns · 3 calls

EVEN-TONEDBROAD
probingconstructive0.00
1.7 turns / call475 chars / question21% on contracts
LEVERAGE0%
CAPEX0%
RETURNS0%
GROWTH20%
MEOSPHERE0%
INTEGRATION20%
IRIS²40%
C-BAND20%

Also covers Eutelsat: question tone there +0.02.

“Yes. And just to follow up on that, in general, in the recent contract, the aircraft prefer pricing per seat, per usage or per aircraft in general.”

Source: Public earnings-call transcripts (data/qa/questions.jsonl); question tone, length and cross-company coverage from data/qa/stance.jsonl (ProsusAI/finbert), shown only at 5+ turns.

Note: Theme shares can sum past 100% — one turn often touches several themes. Tags are a plain summary of the measurements on the same card (question tone, turns per call, question length, top-theme share), not a judgement of the analyst. Names as attributed on the transcripts.