THE CMD WAR ROOM · PEER COMPARISON
Inside the market:
who is actually growing
Four cards from operator earnings calls, media revenue stripped: the peer growth comparison, Viasat, OneWeb, and Starlink.
CARD 1 · THE PEERS
Connectivity-revenue growth, quarter by quarter
Year-on-year connectivity revenue growth, video excluded. Growth rates make different currencies and fiscal calendars comparable.
Eutelsat is growing (+16%); Viasat and SES are flat; Telesat is declining (−26%). The next two cards show what "flat" and "growing" hide.
Sources & method
Source: company earnings calls (see data/tam/peer_growth.csvand the cited transcripts in data/tam/peer_raw/). SES and Eutelsat report connectivity segments half-yearly, Viasat and Telesat quarterly; SES shown like-for-like to neutralise the Intelsat consolidation. Currencies differ, so growth rates — not levels — are compared.
CARD 2 · THE VIASAT ANOMALY
A flat total hiding a backlog cliff
Viasat's Communication Services revenue is flat, but the mix is diverging and the aviation order book is draining.
Connectivity sub-segments, latest year-on-year
Commercial aircraft: in service vs. order backlog
Two growing lines (Aviation +11%, Gov & Defense +10%) offset two shrinking ones (Maritime -7%, Fixed -27%). The aviation growth installs out of a backlog down 47% from peak (1,600 → 850 aircraft), unreplenished. Management reports aircraft leaving for "a competing provider" and guides in-service units "relatively stable".
Sources & method
Source: Viasat quarterly earnings calls FY2025-Q1 → FY2027-Q1 — data/tam/viasat_aircraft.csv, viasat_subsegments.csv(raw rows and quotes in data/tam/peer_raw/viasat.csv). Mid-FY2026 in-service counts interpolated from disclosed YoY rates; backlog step-down in FY2026-Q3 includes a write-down of ~370 legacy-platform installs.
CARD 3 · ONEWEB
LEO growth set against GEO decline
OneWeb LEO revenue is growing fast. But Eutelsat's GEO declines by more, and most of the LEO growth traces to a few anchor contracts.
Eutelsat LEO vs. GEO connectivity revenue (€M, full-year)
The net picture, last reported year (€M)
LEO grew €110M (confirmed). The desk attributes roughly €95M to anchor contracts (CENTAURE, an SES/Intelsat take-or-pay, Ukraine/government), leaving about €15M of broad-market growth —a desk estimate; Eutelsat does not disclose the split. Against a €139M GEO decline, the net across both orbits was €-29M.
Sources & method
Source: Eutelsat FY2025–FY2026 earnings calls — data/tam/oneweb_split.csv, oneweb_bridge.csv (quotes in data/tam/peer_raw/eutelsat.csv). Confirmed: LEO €187M→€297M (+€110M); GEO business −€139M (video −89, GEO connectivity −50). The €95M/€15M split of LEO growth is a desk attribution — Eutelsat does not disclose LEO revenue by contract.
CARD 4 · THE SCALE REFERENCE
Starlink against the entire GEO market
Modeled Starlink enterprise, mobility and government revenue —consumer broadband excluded — against the entire global GEO airtime market. Starlink is private; this is a desk model, editable in the backend.
Excluding consumer broadband, modeled Starlink reaches $7.6B by 2030 — 2.1× the entire global GEO airtime market, overtaking it in 2027–28.
Sources & method
Source: desk model — data/tam/starlink_model.csv and assumptions_starlink_share.csv (Starlink share 35% →75% of the NGSO non-consumer envelope). GEO airtime from tam_segments.csv. Starlink financials are not public; treat as an estimate. Market data: Novaspace 2025, Satellite Connectivity & Video Market (data/raw/tam/ mirror). Licence: (c) Novaspace 2025 — licensed data, internal desk use only. Do not republish.