OneWeb (Eutelsat LEO) — Scope & Funding Ledger
The evidence base behind oneweb.json. Reconstructed by reading the Eutelsat earnings calls, trading-statement calls, shareholder calls and the two 2026 investor decks chronologically (2024-08 → 2026-08) — not a figure list — with [MGMT] company-stated vs [ANALYST] flagged and a funded-vs-notional line made explicit. Cross-referenced against dossiers/industry-consolidation.md. Where a figure cannot be sourced to a primary Eutelsat document it is flagged, not adopted.
Last reconstructed: 2026-08-14 · Sources: 13 Eutelsat primary documents in inbox/ (five earnings calls, four trading-statement calls, two shareholder/AGM calls, two investor decks).
Framing caution that governs the whole ledger: Eutelsat reports "LEO revenue," not "OneWeb revenue" (CFO Caudrelier, 2026-08-05: "what we report is not OneWeb revenue. We report LEO revenues … the combination of all LEO revenues"). There is no standalone OneWeb/LEO EBITDA disclosed anywhere.
1. Satellite & generation evolution — reconciled
The credibility-critical distinction: **the 440 is a Gen-1 continuation (follow-on), NOT Gen-2.** IRIS²/Gen-2 is the separate, later system.
| Count | Meaning | Primary source |
|---|---|---|
| >400 | LEO sats launched at merger (Sept 2023) | IP deck 2026-03-24 [MGMT] |
| +20 | Spare batch, Oct 2024 (first sats reaching end-of-life) | 2024-10-29 CFO [MGMT] |
| 650+ | Full in-orbit Gen-1 fleet now operating | 2025-08-05 CEO [MGMT]: "a fleet of over 650 satellites … 99%+ availability" |
| ~450–500 | Minimum for global coverage (1,200 km) | 2025-02-14 CEO [MGMT] |
| 440 | Gen-1 CONTINUATION = 100 (by 2027) + 340 (by 2029), Airbus | IP deck 2026-03-24 [MGMT]; 100 ordered post-IRIS² signature, 340 ordered Jan 2026 |
| 264 | IRIS²/Gen-2 LEO sats, entry 2030+ | IP deck 2026-03-24 [MGMT] |
"Continuation, not Gen-2" — management's words: 2025-08-05 CEO: "ensuring continuity beyond Gen-1 with the upcoming deployment of 440 follow-on satellites." ⚠️ Late re-labeling: by 2026-08-07 the CEO recast IRIS² itself as "the generation 2 of our constellation." Settled taxonomy: **440 = Gen-1 continuation/bridge; the 528-sat "Next" FCC filing = OneWeb's own filed Gen-2 (WorldVu), now deprioritized; IRIS² (264 LEO sats, LEO/MEO, 5G-NTN) = the effective forward Gen-2** the company is actually building toward, service 2030+. See §7.
⚠️ STALENESS FLAG (2026-08-15, dossier deep-dive routine) — the 264-sat / €10.6bn IRIS² figures above and in §3(b) predate the Aug 7 2026 Rendez-vous 1 signing and are no longer the current disclosed scope.
oneweb:gen2:leoSats claim has been updated to 330 (asOf 2026-08-07) as the mechanically safe half of this refresh. UPDATE 2026-08-28: the "Fleet & generation" chart below has now been refreshed to 330/348 (CHART-oneweb-fleet-generation-refresh, Up-voted 2026-08-22, materialized this run) — the chart is current. The prose/table in §1 above and §3(b)'s €10.6bn capex claim remain left for operator confirmation before rewrite.2. Capacity
| Figure | Meaning | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1 Tbps | Gen-1 sellable capacity | IP deck 2026-03-24 [MGMT] |
| ~2 Tbps total / ≥1.5 Tbps sellable to Eutelsat | IRIS² LEO capacity (incremental) | 2025-02-14 CEO [MGMT] |
Gen-1 envelope: <70 ms latency, 99%+ availability, ~1,200 km.
3. Capex evolution
(a) OneWeb Gen-1 continuation capex:
OneWeb Gen-1 continuation capex — the figure walked down across four disclosures, funded via €1.5bn equity + ~€1.0bn BPI-backed ECA financing.
(b) IRIS²/Gen-2 cost:
IRIS²/Gen-2: €10.6bn total, ~60% public, Eutelsat share ~€2bn back-end loaded (mostly from FY27-28).
(c) Group gross capex path:
Group gross capex path — guided down, then a ramp — funded by a completed €5bn refinancing.
⚠️ The "€5.07B-to-2034" figure does NOT appear in any transcript or the inbox — flagged, not adopted.
4. Launch — the market-dependency cautionary tale
OneWeb owns no rockets. It bought launch on the market — and when its provider became geopolitically unavailable, the constellation paid for it in cash and schedule. This is the counterpoint to Starlink's vertical integration.
Owning no launch made OneWeb hostage to geopolitics — Russia's invasion stranded 36 satellites and forced a $229M write-off.
Ground is a real, separately-contracted cost — not a hole to hand-wave.
5. LEO revenue trajectory ("LEO," not OneWeb-specific)
| Period | LEO revenue | Growth | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY24-25 | €187m | +84.1% l-f-l (15% of group) | 2025-08-05 [MGMT] |
| Q1 FY25-26 | €54m | +71% | 2025-10-21 |
| H1 FY25-26 | €110.5m | +59.7% | 2026-02-13 |
| Q3 FY25-26 | €62.2m | +65% | Q3 deck |
| FY25-26 | €297m | ~+70% (25% of group) | 2026-08-07 [MGMT] |
| FY26-27 (guide) | — | >+30% | 2026-08-07 [MGMT] |
Group target: FY28-29 revenue €1.5–1.7bn. Gov anchor: NEXUS (French MOD, €1bn / 10-yr framework, ~€100m/yr); first call-off CENTAURE €350m/8yr (2026-08-07).
6. Design life → 2034 horizon → mid-2032 migration
Design life 5–7.5 yr is the replenishment rationale for the 440.
Gen-1 is operational to 2034, with migration to IRIS² from mid-2032; IRIS² "secures our future until 2040."
7. Profitability signals
IRIS² target IRR 10–12% (minimum).
LEO margin drag during ramp — LEO is less profitable than the established GEO business.
No standalone LEO/OneWeb EBITDA is disclosed anywhere.
8. FUNDED vs NOTIONAL
FUNDED / committed: the 440 Gen-1 continuation and IRIS²/Gen-2 are both financed.
NOTIONAL — filed/optional, no committed build:
OneWeb's own Gen-2 — the "Next" 528-satellite FCC filing — is on file but management has deprioritized it in favour of IRIS²; notional, no committed build.
Hosted payloads on the 340 continuation satellites — Eutelsat signed its first-ever hosted-payload contract, value confidential; a forward revenue line that may not yet be inside reported LEO revenue.
Future new GEO video sats — flagged as post-2035, no committed project.
9. Figures that cannot be sourced → flagged, not adopted
"€5.07B-to-2034" capex — not in the call or inbox.
The 528-sat "Next" Gen-2 filing is FCC-sourced (WorldVu) and real, but its scope/timeline/capex are not company-guided — no forward figures adopted.
No system-wide IRIS² Tbps — the ~2 Tbps is the LEO layer only; don't extrapolate a system-wide figure.
Operator read (2026-08-14, pending corroboration) — the ~66-sat OneWeb contribution to IRIS² is likely an accounting construct, not a network.
What this maps to in oneweb.json
The fixture models the go-forward continuation IRR: the disclosed ~€2bn continuation capex against the disclosed LEO revenue (€187m → €297m) ramped by a growth multiple × EBITDA-margin slider, benchmarked to Eutelsat's own disclosed 10–12% hurdle. cost/sat derives from €2bn ÷ 440 (both disclosed), so the chain is anchored and the verdict is publishable (base case ~1.5% vs the 10% bar; sliders can clear it). EUR money is FX-normalized to USD via a movable rate.